Mid-Week Updates, No 26

What a weekend: Putin and Glastonbury

Russia’s Moment

It is hard to not go back to what happened last weekend and over the past few days we have been inundated with new theories and thoughts from almost every corner of the planet. Some reports claimed that family members of Prigozhin’s troops were threatened by Russian intelligence services and that hastened a rapid capitulation. It’s plausible and if true a very effective method in getting someone to comply with your wishes. Other areas of interest were around the war and the West’s response with some claiming that we were very close to an all-out nuclear conflict last Saturday. The reasoning behind this is that that in all the confusion and Putin’s overnight weakness there was a window of opportunity for Ukraine and NATO to take rapid advantage in a way that might have solicited an unprecedented reaction from a cornered Russia. This feels a bit far-fetched, however it does lead us to question the extent of Putin’s power and how Ukraine can with the help of NATO take advantage of it.

While many are arguing Putin’s total control has diminished, some will say he is firmly on top of things now and possibly stronger than ever having relegated Prigozhin to the sidelines without much incident. My take is a sort of hybrid here: yes, he did lose some of his authority through these events, but is therefore much more likely to resort to extreme measures, domestically and internationally. He calculated wrong on Prigozhin, the war has not progressed and the pressure is on for him. His room to maneuver has narrowed and he now needs to deliver. A failing war will eat away at the fabric of Russian society.

Given that framework the question becomes what if NATO helps push Ukraine to a decisive win, what on earth can we expect in terms of the forces to be unleashed by a defeated Moscow? Do we want to know? Does NATO grasp how such an outcome may initially be favourable for Ukraine, but may lead to a deposed Putin and a potentially nuclear response by whoever will have access to the button in Moscow?

Again, maybe a wild scenario and the more I read the more I think that Ukraine is far away from winning this war, despite the offensive currently underway. It will be instructive to see what NATO will do at their upcoming summit in Lithuania on July 11-12. All options are on the table and that will also include exploring a possible peace deal. Ukraine may not be ready, Russia may be reluctant, but the world is increasingly getting uncomfortable with a war where that may escalate further and will push Russia to the brink.

Glastonbury

While the Russians were working their way out of a domestic conflict, Brits got together for the Glastonbury Festival which benefited from phenomenal summer weather and huge crowds. And stars. At age 77, Debbie Harry took the stage, 74 year old Cat Stevens was there as was 71-year old Chrissie Hynde and the relatively young Rick Astley (only 57) who made a lifelong career out of only one song that got the crowds going. Yes, ‘Never Gonna Give You Up’ never tires even after 36 years.

But the highlight was for the man who marked this event as his time to retire and that was Elton John who has reached the tender age of 76. It was of course not lost on everyone that Sir Elton’s farewell took place on the 60th birthday of one of Britain’s most versatile stars ever: the late George Michael who should have been among this line up at Glastonbury too. So, to remember him here is one of his most inspiring performances addressing the issue he himself was never able to resolve, at (the old) Wembley in 1992:

As we age, never forget that we have had the extreme privilege of growing up with the most talented musicians to ever have walked the face of this earth. That is why they keep performing, crossing generational boundaries. Whatever happens, these artists will be with us forever. Something to be eternally grateful for.