Mid-Week Updates, No 20
Turkey, Trudeau and Tucker on Twitter
With the local elections behind me, on to the next big vote. This coming Sunday it is time for Turkey to cast its ballot for a new president and the battle is too close to call. Incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been in power since 2014 and has ruled the country in an increasingly authoritarian way while in the process doing incredible damage to the Turkish economy: rampant inflation, a collapsing currency and a flight of capital. His populist and Islamist instincts however continue to play well with the masses, but friends of mine in Turkey have assured me that capital and talent flight will accelerate in an irreversible and damaging way if Erdogan will be re-elected.
All eyes are thus on his challenger, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, an older and retired economist with a background in public service who is uniting the opposition parties under the banner of more prudent economic policies and, as opposed to Erdogan, a far more secular view of the world. And with that he is also advocating closer ties to the West, notably an attempt to establish closer relations with the EU and in particular with NATO of which Turkey is a longstanding but not always flexible member.
It is an election that will have far reaching consequences for the world. Turkey under Erdogan is one of the nations that has adapted a steady journey to authoritarianism, and in that vein edged closer to Russia and China. Erdogan sees himself as a power broker in particular when it comes to the war in Ukraine. If Kılıçdaroğlu succeeds in ousting the president it will no doubt impact the war and other regional conflicts (Syria, Kurdistan) in which both Turkey and the West have major stakes. What we also should not forget is the role the Turkish diaspora plays, they got out to vote last week and it was not always a pleasant proceeding. Both Turkey and the world would benefit from a message focused on political and economic stability coming from Ankara.
Trudeau and Chong
It took a few days, but Canada finally expelled Zhao Wei, the Chinese diplomat implicated in threatening MP Michael Chong and his family. The Chinese of course returned the favour, something that was feared, but which is just the cost of doing business. Between what I wrote about it last week and the actual order for Wei to leave on Monday we witnessed a political circus which centred around the Trudeau government evading responsibility, but even more about them failing to have taken action while citing ‘consequences’ if we take a harsh stance with China. I recalled the wise words of former governor of Hong Kong Chris Patten and put it out on Twitter:
Well, action came and Ottawa did the right thing in the end. If even a diehard Trudeau acolyte like Catherine McKenna calls it out as the bullshit it all is, you know there is little room left for Trudeau to move. If you want to dive deeper into this saga, Terry Glavin is as always on top of it.
Last year I discussed the Twitter saga in a lot of detail and Elon Musk continues to make headlines on a daily basis. But it has always been the case that behind all his ‘freedom of speech’ arguments, which were not untrue, was the need to let the platform make money, something the previous owners never were able to do and which for Musk too is an uphill battle. With Fox top host Tucker Carlson being booted off the network that made him a star, an opportunity presented itself and the controversial commentator will now launch his show in a further middle finger move pointed at the legacy media. Its success is far from guaranteed, but no matter if you are left or right leaning, pro or contra Elon, it will be a fun ride to watch. From a media/business perspective as well as from a political angle. And going into a US election cycle it will surely pour the necessary amounts of oil on the fire.
The other thing to note on Carlson is the label of being a right-wing, supremacist peddler of conspiracy theories that he has earned over the past few years. That may be his brand, yes, but like Ann Coulter remember that these commentators are in daily life fairly down to earth characters whose media personae is a form of performance art. The first show of Carlson I ever watched was the Spin Room on CNN in the early 2000s and it was intensely funny, because the two hosts, Carlson and Bill Press (who was the Democrat on the show), attacked every subject with dry and scathing humour. Those routines don’t pay the bills any longer and we will have to see how Twitter can monetize political attack art 2023 style.
Photo: trying to be original with my content, I could not find a great Turkey photo other than this 2017 photo shot I took in the coastal village of Bodrum on the Turkish coast. My absolute favourite thing coming from Turkey is of course this incredibly multi-talented artist.
Trudeau needs to go, but PP is so toxic and so destructive of any sense of common purpose as a country that Trudeau is highly motivated to stay and fight. None of the election outcomes are good for Canada. I wish there was a way to have Michael Chong lead the CPC and for PP to step out. And for someone other than Trudeau (there are several good candidates) to take over the Liberals. But neither of those is likely before the next election. Sigh.