Mid-Week Updates

The alliance is arming up and Trump grabs Iowa

Lots of readers checked into the update on the Houthis on Monday and yesterday another altercation took place in the Red Sea with US forces engaging the group. This is far from over. One reader mentioned that the Houthis also have their own motto which is:

“ God is the Greatest, Death to America, Death to Israel, A Curse Upon the Jews, Victory to Islam “

In case there was any doubt about its strategic objectives.

Weapons as discussed are sourced primarily from Iran which in turn is entering into an ever closer relationship with Moscow. This week the Russians and Iranians conducted negotiations to advance ‘military and technical cooperation’. Also this week, the Russians deepened their relation with North Korea whose foreign minister Choe Son Hui came to Moscow (see photo above with her Russian counterpart Lavrov). Russia is deeply appreciative of the active military support that North Korea is now providing to ensure that the war in Ukraine can be resourced on a continuous basis. It is also not a secret that North Korea has in recent years really ramped up its weapons production with some fearing that this is part of the plan for a potential future attack on South Korea. Well, in order to circle this up, North Korea also enjoys a close relationship with Tehran and has made no secret of it that it is actively helping Iran. And, not surprisingly, evidence has also emerged of the support it is giving to Hamas, Hezbollah and indeed even the Houthis.

So all the boycotts and weapon embargoes that western nations pursue are not a match for a new alliance where Russia, Iran and North Korea are working closely together in finding the most optimal allocation of weaponry among themselves and their proxies. And of course China is part of this circle of weapon trading friends, they are increasingly active in this partnership.

All this to say that you need to continue to look at the conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine and now the Red Sea as part of a larger struggle where a few powerful players are re-arranging global relationships. The South-North conflict in Korea as well as the Taiwan-China tensions are not active wars, but in an environment of arming up and global confusion they could heat up faster than we like to think. With each passing day the shape of a long and dangerous world-wide conflict becomes clearer.

Iowa

Sure there was a reasonable expectation that Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis would do well in Iowa, but with Trump landing at 51% of the caucus vote it is clear that it will be hard to catch up for them. A combined Haley-DeSantis effort falls short of even a majority and the momentum Trump now has will carry him into New Hampshire next week. See the results below, with the note that Ramaswamy is dropping out and lining up behind Trump.

Judging from the reactions around me it seems that only now the public at large is waking up to the reality of a possible and likely second Trump term. It raises the question as to why it is that Trump is performing so strongly despite his legal troubles, the January 6th stigma and the fact that, not to be missed, he did not accomplish all that much in his first term. There are a number of things to note here.

Biden is truly and deeply unpopular and the economy, immigration and the fear of foreign military adventures are all three signature Trump items. Establishment GOP politicians, like for instance Haley, are perceived to represent corporate and vested interests and not the needs of the average American. And this is something which has been amplified over social media over the past few weeks leading up to the Iowa caucus. So, working class Americans are ill at ease with both the Democrats under Biden and the traditional country club Republicans, but in Trump they find their voice, again. And whatever you say about the man, his campaigning skills and stump speech work and resonate widely.

But towering over these economic and political considerations is the self-fulfilling dynamic of ‘the winner’. We saw the same in the British Conservative Party where in 2019 Boris Johnson created an air of inevitability which caused the party to rally around him. In that case evidence of incompetence, dishonesty and poorly crafted policy proposals still did not ensure that Johnson’s opponents would indeed vote against him. No, they folded. Trump’s re-emergence is a similar process where the lure of the winning team attracts enough support on both the political and grass roots level to bring back an extremely controversial politician to power. That said, we have a long way to go to Tuesday November 5 and a lot can still happen. Needless to say, given what is happening in the world this presidential election will be more consequential for all of us than ever.