Mid-Week Updates

Is Trump really winning? And: hostages and a divided Israel

It was in the year 2000 that John McCain and his ‘Straight Talk Express’ upset the Republican establishment by winning the New Hampshire primary over George Bush Jr. There was excitement back then for the late senator, but the entire venture ran out of fuel after a somewhat humiliating defeat at the hands of Bush in South Carolina. In yesterday’s run-off in the Granite State there was no such surprise, although you could make the argument that Trump is challenging the establishment and Haley might have another shot at it in South Carolina. Despite her loss, she pulled in a commendable 43% and grabbed 9 delegates as opposed to Trump’s 12 so her statement that ‘this race is far from over’ may have some merit.

While Trump is arguably the clear frontrunner, you may wonder what is in it for Haley at this stage. There are two things to note here. Firstly, there is still a chance that Trump’s legal troubles will incapacitate his campaign and at that point the GOP will need a viable replacement. Haley will be the one with the most delegates after Trump and that will give her the edge in such a situation. But more importantly, Haley voters are not Trump voters, far from it. In other words, if you follow my argument, Haley effectively is splitting the GOP vote into two camps and her followers may very well stay home or vote for Biden come November. Given the wafer thin margins in general elections, Trump’s current status as the man to beat Biden is not nearly as certain as some happen to think. His actual lead may be a tenuous one as he is losing independents and Haley could prove to be the perfect accelerant for that process.

So, bear that in mind when evaluating the results and the Trump hype. And do reflect on the threats that Trump was already throwing around on stage last night. Moderate Republicans and independent voters don’t like that sort of stuff. As much as America underestimated Trump in 2016 it may now be underestimating his electoral weaknesses.

Photo: the guy behind Trump is Tim Scott, US Senator for South Carolina. Scott was appointed to this role when Jim DeMint retired by, you guessed it, Governor Nikki Haley.

Fading Hope, Political Strife

The mood in Israel is darkening. Not only did a record number of soldiers die in one day (on Monday), it is far from clear what progress is being made in Gaza. The military operations have scaled down and yet the core goal of destroying Hamas is far from being realized. At the same time the divisions in the war cabinet are beginning to show and Nethanyahu is continuing to scheme to preserve his position should an election happen. In fact, many commentators in Israel will point to the fact that rather than waging a war he has in fact been campaigning ever since October 7th.

Nowhere is the resulting pain felt more acutely than by the families of the remaining 130 hostages. Feelings of being ignored by Israel’s government, neglected by international institutions like the Red Cross and the UN while precious time is ebbing away. Every day that passes is another day of more hostage abuse, rape and unimaginable suffering for their family members. The families are losing their patience and understandably so, on Monday they invaded a committee meeting in Israel’s parliament and emotions were no longer in control. You can see the video here (yes it is from Al-Jazeera but it is the best subtitled clip I could find) and it gives you a feel of how anger and frustration are spiralling out of control.

You cannot help but feel for these people who have not had a normal day since October and who intuit that Israel’s authorities could either have done more, or at least have told them more. Or both. Notice the motionless parliamentarians as they take in the raw feedback from the desperate families, I clipped the most gut wrenching statement in the photo above. Apart from its touching content it highlights how divisions are beginning to rip away the unity that brought all Israelis together on October 7th.

An offer from Israel to have a two-month ceasefire in return for releasing all the hostages was rejected by Hamas, but late yesterday there appeared to be an opening to work out a deal. Who knows what is really happening behind the scenes. And remember that with all the global attention and protests the value of these hostages has gone up and that is exactly how Hamas is approaching these talks: from a position of strength.

With that we are at 110 days back to the devil’s dilemma: finish and win the war at the expense of the hostages or, cut a hostage deal and give Hamas another day to fight. As of today neither is happening and therein lies the root of the anger on Israel’s streets.