Monday was a really bad day in Israel. Images were released of four young hostages shortly after they were captured on October 7th. At their wits end, the families of Liri Albag, Karina Ariev, Daniela Gilboa and Agam Berger decided to seek international media attention through the Daily Mail. There is a combination of horror, anxiety and extreme sadness when you watch the three month old short video of the four captured young women. The state they are in today is ours to guess, but based on all the testimonies that have come out of Gaza from released hostages, we have to fear for the worst. Scant food and drinks, no medication, rape, physical abuse, psychological torture, all of the above and more.
When I posted this on ‘X’ the feedback was ‘well, they were serving in the Israeli armed forces’. To which my answer was, yes, in which case they should have been accorded treatment under the Geneva Conventions, including access to them by the International Red Cross. None of that of course has happened, on the contrary.
One interesting theory around the hostages that has become fairly persistent over the past few days is about their location. Apparently, Israel knows exactly where Hamas Chief Yahya Sinwar is situated, but he has surrounded himself with the remaining hostages as human shields. It is plausible and it even is a small flicker of hope indicating that many may still be alive. Absent global outrage and real efforts to get them out, the only thing we can do here is to keep the issue on the front pages and that is why I will keep writing about it.
Biden, Trump, Haley
One of the dinner table discussions over the holidays was of course the presidential election which will get going with the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary this month. Yes, time flies. Interestingly some of my friends who I would qualify as ‘progressive’ or ‘leaning Democrat' were quick to point out that they felt that GOP candidate Nikki Haley was probably the one candidate best suited to sit in the White House. And that is after having considered all the other candidates.
Of course, the numbers point to a Trump-Biden match up, but the uptick in support for, as well as interest in, Haley is not just driven by justifiable fears of a second Trump term. It is also highlighting the rock bottom popularity of the incumbent, Joe Biden. The latter however is on a full force offensive with a battle cry for democracy in a speech that commemorated the January 6th attack on the US Capitol. There still is no alternative for him, he is trailing Trump who in his own party is comfortably ahead of both Haley and DeSantis. Still, many pundits will tell you that Biden could drop off the ticket at any moment and that Haley in particular could dislodge Trump under certain circumstances. It would require the Democrats to find a suitable replacement and the Republicans to convince themselves that the baggage and endless court cases have crippled Trump beyond repair.
My take remains that we need a forceful yet moderate candidate who can steer the democratic world through the global re-ordering that is taking place right now. South Carolina’s former governor might just be it.
Canada’s Troubles
While Canada under Trudeau has steadily retreated from its global role and responsibilities, the world is now increasingly discovering Canada. And not in a good way. The news of the current government’s mishaps and its deep unpopularity have not gone unnoticed in the international press. Even more alarming is the fact that I now hear people talking about ‘leaving Canada’. Yes, you read that correctly and for someone like me who came here thinking that Europe was the place to leave, this is even more disconcerting. What is going on?
Former CBC-journalist and Substacker Tara Henley highlights the four key issues: the housing and socio-economic crisis, woke politics, failing media and Trudeau enabled ‘polarization spirals’ which emerged during the pandemic. It is a good overview so go read it. Terry Glavin who is an equally sound independent journalist goes one step further and puts forward how structural the housing misery is and how record immigration numbers have put further pressure on what now appears to be an intractable home crisis.
What do I think ? Canada has been lucky to have an excellent civil service that keeps this country running as the political class has failed abysmally over the past decade. It is all of the above things that Henley and Glavin note. But it is key to understand that this has been compounded by Trudeau running budget deficits from day one, long before Covid, with the goal to address a plethora of perceived needs Canada apparently had. Social engineering with borrowed money. But most of that did not solve real problems, on the contrary: from housing to healthcare to defense to productivity to education to immigration to the state of the media, things are in disarray. Canada is consequently stuck with a huge pile of debt and fairly persistent inflation. All of this is sold to Canadians by a group of mediocre politicians who are more concerned about creating an image and controlling the message. And they never address journalists’ questions. Much like the US, someone needs to carve out a way to moderation and common sense. The next election cannot come soon enough.
German Farmers
The Germans are also anxious to go vote again, the next election will be in 2025. German farmers turned out en masse on Monday to protest. And whereas their Dutch counterparts turned their nation upside down over the controversial nitrogen level legislation, the Germans were out to protest proposed reductions in diesel subsidies and tax breaks for agricultural vehicles. All of this fits into the narrative of the terrible state of the German economy and the resulting budget deficits. These will need to be covered and the measures affecting the farmers are part of that. And like in The Netherlands the far-right is surging in the polls with Olaf Scholz’s progressive-green coalition under a lot of pressure. Tweaking the fiscal measures and alleviating the pressures on the farmers is a likely first step.
Dutch 007 visits Tehran
Remember the Netflix series Tehran? Where Israeli secret agents try to disable Iran’s nuclear programme? Cool fiction right? Apparently closer to the truth than we might think although the undercover agent who managed to install the lethal Stuxnet malware on servers controlling the underground Natanz nuclear facility in 2007 was a Dutch guy. The news came out this week and rather than highlighting the James Bond nature of the operation, it was the fact that neither the cabinet nor parliament was informed in what was an operation managed by the Dutch and other international intelligence agencies. A real secret agent at work. Not sure to what extent it helped delay Iran’s nuclear progress, but it must have done a fair amount of damage to the program. The agent is no longer around, he died in a motorcycle accident in Dubai in 2009.