Mid-Week Updates

Israel, the US Primaries and Ukraine

Israel

Yesterday municipal elections took place in Israel, the first real voting event since October 7th. It was not by any means an indication of deep political shifts, it was local, but it was an event where some that were slated to run were not there. Notably, Tamar Kedem Siman Tov, the thirty-five year old resident of kibbutz Nir Oz who together with her husband and three young children was murdered on that fateful day. I was reminded of her earlier this year when news reports highlighted how Tamar’s mother, Reuma Kedem, accidentally ran into Israel’s Minister of Defence, Yoav Gallant when visiting the devastated kibbutz where the family perished. At first Kedem lost her voice when trying to address Gallant, but when she regained it, it was the minister who in turn lost his ability to respond. The short encounter which made it to video is perhaps one of the most fitting epitaphs of October 7th. At some point there are no more words, but only a deep silence revealing unending grief and eternal guilt.

It is probably paywalled, but a recent article in Haaretz dives deeper into how the Kedem family has fared over the past four months. It is a sobering and heartbreaking read.

In the meantime, there are still a sizeable number of hostages waiting to be freed. A deal to get to a ceasefire and have the first group of vulnerable hostages (women, elderly, children) released early next week is progressing. The US, Egypt, Qatar and Israel have been hard at work to get this across the line before the start of Ramadan. The logistics of it all are quite challenging and so we will have to see, but Biden is positive it will happen.

Trump, Biden, Haley

Last night Trump steamrolled Nikki Haley taking 68% of the GOP primary vote in Michigan. This is following his win in Haley’s home state, South Carolina over the weekend. Sure, I confess, my bet on the continued strength in the campaign of Trump’s persistent challenger was made against readily available evidence. But the number of Republican voters that did not mark the Trump box on their ballot sheet could still play a decisive role in November: they can stay home or vote Biden. That is why ‘camp Haley’ continues to be relevant. And Biden is equally threatened by a vocal minority despite his 81% take in the Michigan vote: uncommitted progressives and Arab Americans could also disengage and threaten a Biden win in the Great Lakes State in November. But it is unlikely that they will throw their weight behind Trump.

Ukraine

The Biden-Trump dynamic will also have a big impact on the war in Ukraine with Trump the one most likely to change course and try and get to some sort of a peace deal. Yes there is still a strong sentiment both in the Democratic party and in Europe’s halls of power that we need to try and win this thing, although no one really knows how. For some now is the time to try some unconventional thinking.

And that happened this week and it was French president Emmanuel Macron who rolled the dice, dangerously. On Monday he made it clear that direct troop deployments from Western countries could not be ruled out, a statement that no one was too happy about. It was in all likelihood a poorly crafted trial balloon at a time where there is no clear plan to turn the tide in Ukraine. It will further alert a Russia that is already in ‘World War mode’ and it will give fodder to the cynics in the US and Europe. They have warned us all along that at some point young conscripts will be send to the eastern battlefields. For now Macron will likely walk his statement back, but it is once more evidence of how directionless Ukraine policy is at a time where Russia is now clearly getting the upper hand. And that is not a great prospect.

Your Questions

Thanks and keep them coming, they will be addressed in the coming week(s). Working on the right format.

Photo: Tamar Kedem Siman Tov’s election billboard.