Method to the Madness

Greenland, Canada, Panama Canal: pawns in a global order under re-construction

The man is crazy. He wants to conquer the world. Another Hitler is upon us. That is the tone of much of the response to Trump’s presser earlier this week wherein he laid out some of America’s territorial ambitions. And yes, it strikes a deep contrast with the unwritten rules of diplomatic engagement that we have all grown up with. And if force was ever to be used, it was always couched in something much softer and gentler, you will recall James Baker’s, ‘velvet hammer’. No such filters exist in Trump land. We want Greenland, we want the Panama Canal back and ideally Canada will join our union. And by the way, we have a toolbox to make that all happen if you are not complying with our wishes.

There is a lot you can say about it, but at its core these moves are not that descent into utter madness as some would have it, apart from the unusual delivery maybe. Far from it. Those of you familiar with Peter Zeihan’s groundbreaking book on how the world is entering a phase of de-globalization will probably understand why.

As US power recedes, and in particular if it accelerates its isolationist instincts under Trump, the world will start to break away in a number of power blocks who each will be increasingly dependent on their own defence and natural resources. China and Russia have already bolted from the global collaboration plans and are charting their own definitive directions. Europe seems adrift in these currents. The one power block that is best placed to survive in all of this global reordering is North America. Well protected with two large oceans on either side and a huge ice pack on its north (at least for the time being), lots of interconnecting waterways, ample resources, huge agricultural reserves and potential, spanning different climate zones and yes, healthy demographics: if there is anywhere to be safe, comfortable and well fed in the new world, this is where you want to be.

So looking ahead it is not all that strange for America to start shoring up its defences on its eastern side in Greenland, the idea of which may even have pre-dated Trump. As it happens it also comes with resource reserves to dream of, in particular as warmer temperatures will give easier access to what is deep below the massive snowpacks. On its south, the Panama canal is increasingly compromised because China is maybe using it a little too much and no one can be sure which political direction Panama might take in the future. It also forms the land bridge into Columbias and Latin America at large. And then finally, the positioning of Canada as America’s 51st state is presented as being about a trade deficit and tariff negotiation and it may well be, but the underlying sentiments are not dissimilar to the ‘plans’ for Greenland and Panama. America is in risk reduction mode as it heads into an uncertain, fractured and de-globalized world.

Now the Greenland case is certainly not as absurd as it may seem. The majority of its smallish population of 56,000 - which is 90% indigenous - is not all that enamoured of the Danish crown and apparently up for a change in sovereignty. America (or Canada come to think of it) could well be that partner and after a referendum structure a sort of ‘one country, two systems’ arrangement. Hand defence and foreign affairs over to the US (or Canada) and start drilling:

The proceeds will benefit both the US and the Greenlanders. So yes - this is not the wild plan many might think it is and it will find many takers in both the US and indeed Greenland itself.

Much less will be the enthusiasm in Denmark and in particular in Europe at large where fears of a newly isolationist and passive-aggressive America will effectively further fray relationships between the old continent and the new one. It will also rock the NATO boat at a time where stability and collaboration should be top of the list. Europe is in a pickle as it has all the negatives that North America does not have: struggling economies, poor demographics, limited natural resources, too many national voices that do not align and Putin knocking at the front door. If more distance starts to emerge between Europe and the US, which it will, it will further accelerate what the acquisition of Greenland seeks to alleviate, a new and redefined global order.

Photo: Trump and Obama at Jimmy Carter’s funeral at the National Cathedral in Washington, DC, on January 9, 2024. These two have not exactly been friends to put it mildly and yet, they were chatting amicably yesterday. Remarkable.