Apologies for the botched posting schedule this week, the Substack platform has given me some unexpected headaches (you will have noted the initially missing photo here), but it seems I have been able to do a work around and back to normal now. It’s weird. Anyway, thanks for reading and subscribing, the reader base keeps growing.
Ukraine
It has been a while since we discussed the war in detail and apart from the many political and diplomatic games being played around the world’s capitals, the front line has not moved a lot. Nor has the reporting been all that consistent, if you look at the major battle for Bakhmut taking place now you will find reports that the Russians are exhausted and not winning, but also ones that argue Ukrainians are facing setbacks in the same battle. In all likelihood both are probably true and we will just have to wait until the smoke literally clears in order to get a more definite report. The intensity of the fighting is probably best illustrated by the fact that there are days when the ‘kill rate’ is 10 to 1 and that means that for every Ukrainian soldier killed some ten Russians will see their lives coming to and end. If true it supports the theory that Putin will keep throwing endless human capital at this horrendous and really pointless conflict.
So will there be a game changer to break this log jam? Reports have been filtering in that the British, German and American tank deliveries have started to arrive and that these could be operational in the next few months, depending on the time required for training. This likely means a spring Ukrainian offensive with the goal of materially changing the situation on the ground before the pressure to settle at the table is ramped up again.
And the latter is a definite possibility. Support for the war in Western countries is waning and in particular in the US where the run-up to the presidential election of next year will seriously get under way this fall. Remember primaries start at the beginning of the year and will require lots of grassroots campaigning and overseas wars are increasingly unpopular in both the Republican and Democratic base. This means that Biden in particular needs to show progress on Ukraine and offer a plan or some sort of tangible progress that no longer hinges on endless US support. Now remember, this level of support is actually the only way Ukraine could conceivably win this conflict, so a ‘quick win’ or a ‘best possible outcome’ this year is almost a political requirement for team Biden. That could mean everyone is banking on that Ukrainian offensive followed by a route to the negotiating table sooner rather than later, something that even Zelensky should be aware of when assessing his limited options. The appetite for another winter of war is not just there, not in Brussels, not in Beijing and certainly not in Washington.
We should not forget that as the war has become a political playball for the global powers, it is a daily source of deep human suffering on both sides. While it is hard to convey the impact and gruesomeness of the slaughter on the front lines, it is quite possible to highlight individual human, and in particular civilian, tragedies. Thirteen year old Russian girl Masha Moskalyova made a drawing at school opposing the war and was reported by her teachers to the authorities. That’s what good educators do in Russia. Following social media posts from him, her father was charged and Masha herself was placed in an orphanage as her dad is the sole parent. Moskalyov somehow managed to escape to Belarus and was sentenced in absentia to two years in a penal colony for his actions. He was apprehended this week and will now have to serve out his sentence. Note that in regimes such as Russia it is just not enough to punish someone, inflicting maximum emotional and physical pain is part of the process. For that reason alone the world needs to always stand up to these bullies.
The Safest Place in the World
So with political instability, crime, war, climate change, immigration and a rapidly changing economic landscape where do we want to live? Some twenty-four years ago I did my analysis and picked Vancouver, Canada. Well, this week I heard an amazing argument for that choice, apart from all the other solid points around space, clean air, skiing, hiking, good schools, low crime etc.
Apparently there are so many mainland Chinese investors and CPC members living and invested in Vancouver that in case of an armed conflict with China the latter will keep the rainy city out of the line of fire. Good to know. But take it from me: there is no perfect place on this planet. There are always trade-offs. But to be living under a notional safety umbrella from Xi Jinping is a weird and somewhat uncomfortable feeling.
See you next week!