Kherson is Free
Which is good but it has drastic consequences, globally
The news of Russia withdrawing from the city of Kherson - and thus abandoning its last stronghold west of the Dnipro River - ended the week on a high note on Friday. The scenes of citizens welcoming Ukrainian troops as they moved into the city evoked memories of how allied troops liberated Europe in 1944-45. To get this reported to us on the day the allies remembered their veterans only added to the historic momentum of the events. And today Ukrainian president Zelensky visited the liberated city and surrounding areas.
It points to three things.
Looking through a moral lens, the first one I think is the most important one. Amid all the accounts now coming out as to how the occupants tried to ‘Russify’ the city, its citizens held on and resisted where possible. Putin’s idea of amalgamating the territories he occupied and make them part of his culturally homogenized empire has not only failed, it accomplished exactly the opposite. The Ukrainian sense of pride is now stronger than ever. In light of that the West should recognize that possible negotiations over territory are not just that: when you open the door to talk and to cut a deal you do that over the heads of the people that actually live there. A bit of land in return for some peace is an academic concept: not everyone on the ground may be interested in it, no matter its potential merits. And the people that have been occupied so far are making it abundantly clear where they think they belong.
And that brings us to negotiations. Rumours and hints have been coming from both Washington and European capitals that it is time to put an end to it all and find some compromise. The war is a drain on the world economy and it is beginning to create domestic political divides in most western countries. But more important is the realization that a crumbling Russia, however satisfying it could be, may not be in everyone’s interest. First, it could provoke total acts of desperation from the Kremlin like the often cited nuclear attacks. But crucially it would be a total boon to China as it would be able to start having some leverage over a weakened and militarily impotent Russia. A strong and independent Russia has always been a valuable counterweight to an overly ambitious China, just as China was to Russia during the Cold War. Both the US and Europe have a vested interest here.
And that leads us to the fact that Russia has now lost its bridgehead that would be the staging ground to attack deep into Ukraine, notably the western areas with the crucial city of Odesa. The war for Ukraine has been lost pretty much, it is a setback of epic proportions if you think where we were only a few months ago in this conflict. The new situation on the ground will open the way to further rollback Putin’s troops where now the Crimea is an open target. Russia will be totally humiliated if Zelensky’s men and women push on from the advantage they now have. They may be able to clean out not just the occupied areas but also what was annexed by Russia in 2014 in one big swoop. And all of this could conclude much sooner than many previously thought.
Despite the horrors - and there will be ample evidence of war crimes coming at us in the months to come - the Ukrainian people have made great progress. Both militarily and culturally they keep winning, the question is now if they can translate this into a long term political advantage. As much as their initial losses created a world crisis, so will a decisive gain change the increasingly imbalanced geopolitical situation. Watch for what will come out of Washington, Moscow and Beijing in the weeks to come. In the meantime, enjoy the reports from a liberated Kherson.
Here I could click the heart icon and really mean it. But you are right, there is a lot of instability and danger in the current situation.