As of this morning the results are clear and Italy’s right-wing coalition led by Giorgia Meloni is set to take power. After the right in Sweden accomplished a similar feat only a few weeks ago, it is time to take a closer look. In particular as many media outlets are given to the usual hysteria about ‘fascism’ and in this case the name of Mussolini was of course back on the front pages. The better thing to do is to ask the 'why’ and more importantly understand why this process appears to be manifesting itself across the rest of Europe. So here we go:
Opposition and anti-Establishment Candidate - this is the easiest reason to throw out there, Meloni’s ‘Brothers of Italy’ was the key party in opposition to the incumbent government. This always has its benefits if crises emerge and envelop an unpopular sitting government. The ‘time for change’ argument.
Economy - the multiple layered crises enveloping Europe are bound to hit an economy like Italy’s hard. Deep in debt, on life support with European assistance, it is a politician’s dream to stoke up nationalist sentiments against the EU. Think about how the currency crisis played out in Greece, hard left and hard right had a field day (and both ultimately lost). Ursula von der Leyen’s inept attempt to quell the anti-EU rhetoric and give Italian voters a warning may have actually had an adverse result here.
Immigration - located on the Mediterranean and right across from Africa, Italy is bearing the full impact of un-regulated streams of both political and economic refugees with its attendant problems (cost, housing, downward pressure on wages, crime). While there are many immigrant success stories, it is relatively easy to whip up native sentiments in times of crisis and argue that it is time to close the borders.
Running a Slate - Meloni’s party built a coalition together with two other right-of-centre parties (business tycoon Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and Matteo Salvini’s League) both of whom actually lost votes. Yet combined they were a force that favoured them in Italy’s electoral system and they can now start negotiating what a cabinet under Meloni will look like.
Collapse of the Left - as in much of Europe, the traditional left has really failed to make a dent and create a viable alternative for the voters, more on that below.
So almost all of the above are applicable to Europe at large, but the last one on the demise of the left, or traditional social-democrats, is truly instructive. In Britain, Labour will have been locked out of power and in opposition for 15 years (!) at the next election date, the once heroic and powerful French and Dutch labour parties have practically ceased to exist, Sweden’s left recently lost power and in Germany the social-democrats are now a centrist party. In fact the ‘old left’ that once stood up for the rights of workers and the disadvantaged is no longer on the ballot. Europe’s left adopted neo-liberalism to stay electable starting in the 1990s, moved to the centre and strongly favoured the growth of the EU and its market-based economic policies. That model works great if it delivers benefits for all, and it did for a while, but we are now moving into an era where we see an ever growing class of working poor, rising energy prices and an unbridgeable wealth gap (think housing). The immigrants are actually feeding the huge demand for labour in a market-based and aging Europe and therefore have a clear role in neo-liberal economic thought. But: they also keep wages down and it that regard they contribute to economic but also cultural anxieties. With the traditional left having (a) accepted the market-based economic approach and (b) making huge bets on climate policies with its attendant cost there is going to be pain. Any government dealing with these issues while also facing a pandemic aftermath and an escalating war has simply got too much on its plate. With centrists under this level of pressure and the (traditional) left largely absent, the vote is there for the populist right to sweep up.
It comes in many forms though. In the UK it was the Conservatives under Johnson and now Truss who smartly co-opted the populist Brexit sentiment and brought it in-house. No one reasonable has ever considered qualifying Johnson or Truss as fascists, far from it. In continental Europe there is more reluctance to make such a bold move which is why fringe parties have been able to grow and become a force on their own. To date strong centrist coalitions have been able to keep them at bay, but the tide is turning now as witnessed in Italy and in Sweden. But also in France, witness Le Pen, and in my native Netherlands where three new right of centre entities are turning the parliamentary debate upside down on a weekly basis. Again if you co-opt them like in Britain they can moderate, if you exclude them they may radicalize.
Europe’s new right is driven by fear of change and inept economic management, with the EU framed as the culprit. That is where the core of nationalist sentiments reside and concerns over a largely unelected EU overriding local governments are not irrational. The real risk here however is the positioning when it comes to Russia. Europe’s hard-right has been not been neutral on the war in Ukraine and often quite open to Putin’s side of the story. Meloni has been clear in her support for Ukraine, her coalition partners however have a less than ideal record on this file. There is direct support in some cases from Moscow for parties such as this, all with the goal of destabilizing Europe and diluting its support for Ukraine and anti-Putin forces more generally. A successful new right both winning and in bed with Russia is a true nightmare scenario for the entire world. It would legitimize authoritarian rule as a model to be seriously considered (with ironically an even more detrimental impact on the working poor) and undermine democracies everywhere. Support for Ukraine may also no longer be strong and unified.
We will see how Meloni will do. A hardcore approach vis-à-vis the EU may end in tears, her coalition may be unable to stick it out together, particularly in a country known for political chaos. And as with other countries the shopping list of inflation, energy, immigration, environment, war and whatever else may prove too heavy a burden to carry. Expect instability and some conflict. That said, we will need to give Italy’s first female prime minister the benefit of the doubt. A fresh approach could work knowing that as the campaign rhetoric is over the hard work really begins.