It all happens in Washington

The hostage situation moves forward step by step and so does the Ukraine story

What a photo to wake up to today, the freed hostages in a sunny Washington, DC. It brings a smile, a feeling of victory over evil, but now that their stories are told and documented also tears. One of these released hostages, Eli Sharabi, agreed to do an interview with Israel’s top TV interviewer Ilana Dayan and the result is an hour of utter darkness of a level that is hard to imagine. It surpasses what the mind can conceive and you may need to watch it twice to digest it in its entirety while also learn some valuable life lessons. Sharabi, who also lost his wife and two daughters, was very specific at the start of the conversation that no subject was off the table. You can watch the whole thing here; this is only an excerpt but worth sharing:

So yes, these freed hostages are meeting with Trump and it goes to illustrate how the next steps in further negotiations are coming from Washington that is now directly, yes no intermediaries, talking to Hamas. The urgency around the remaining hostages is channeled to the president by way of one his larger campaign contributors, Miri Adelson who has been relentless in championing their cause. It also means that Nethanyahu, who has been reluctant to move negotiations for a next phase of hostage releases and withdrawal of Israeli troops with Hamas forward, is increasingly cut out of this process that is now driven by Washington. Some change from the Biden days.

And domestically the pressure on the Nethanyahu government is building, earlier this week, in particular ugly scenes, members of hostage families were forcibly removed from Israel ‘s parliament where they were protesting. It adds to a picture of an embattled prime minster who at the same time is resisting an independent national inquiry into what went wrong on October 7th. While still commanding his parliamentary majority, Nethanyahu’s political capital is beginning to erode and that is something that team Trump must be picking up on. Surely, it is too early to suggest that the Israeli PM will get a public dressing down the way Ukraine’s Zelenskyy got last week, but who knows what is happening behind closed doors. Things are moving with an unprecedented speed, that much is clear.

Zelenskyy

And that brings us to the continuing unravelling of support for Ukraine where Washington is now applying real pressure by rolling back military aid for, and sharing intelligence with, Ukraine. As Europe is building up bigger defence budgets - Germany now even contemplating to lift its debt ceilings to accomplish that - Zelenskyy himself is signalling to Washington that he does want to get the negotiations and the eventual deal back on track.

So Washington is in a hurry on multiple fronts and it should be noted that not all of it is driven by an urgent need to isolate America from the rest of the planet. In a way the new administration is responding to a global order where over the past few decades we have seen a stronger and very assertive China which, not unexpectedly, is moving closer to that other evil empire, Russia. This should dispel the notion that Trump is somehow a Putin apologist - although it certainly does look like that - but rather is trying to bring Moscow back from its position as a preferred partner for Beijing. Driving a wedge between these two formerly communist powers is not new, remember the Nixon/Kissinger opening to Beijing to isolate Russia in the 1970s, and this is a similar move. Breaking new hegemonies before they become too hard to unwind. A multi-polar world where out of the three world powers, none is getting too close to the other.

This new arrangement will have further implications for other regions, India comes to mind, but also Iran. Trump may well be staging a move that with Russia’s help could sideline Iran for the time being and avoid an Israeli assault to neuter Tehran’s nuclear programme. And in this way a more peaceful Middle East could emerge with America as the ultimate power broker in that region without China in the mix. And without US troops on the ground.

Sure it is too early to say anything definitively, but new contours are emerging faster than anyone would have thought and Washington is far from retreating from the world. They’re just redrawing its map.

One more thing …

It is so heartening to see how the world is engaged with the hostages and in particular with the families of those that did not come back alive. Last week the body of Tsachi Idan was released and many of us will never forget how the horrors that befell his family were livestreamed on that horrible day. This is how Canada said goodbye, thanks Richard Lowy for your rendition of the Idan family’s favourite song from Cat Stevens. Note how Ayala, the mother of Maya Puder who was murdered at the Nova Music Festival and who spoke at the Vancouver rally, moves Tsachi’s photo in front of the camera.

Photo on top: released hostages Doron Steinbrecher, Omer Shem Tov, Eli Sharabi, Keith Siegel, Naama Levy and Iair Horn.