Iran's Revolution (2)
From Starlink to Pahlavi to Soltani - a short update
If you are wondering, Elon Musk’s Starlink has satellites in low orbit around the earth and to connect with them you need a Starlink receiver of which some 50,000 have apparently been smuggled into Iran to date. It feels like a large number given the sparse reports we are getting, but who knows, maybe more will come in now that Musk announced access to his network from Iran will be free. This also means that the regime is now actively looking for and confiscating Starlink receivers.
And with that you can also see how the revolution in Iran is entering politics in many western countries. I cannot begin to count the negative references to Starlink in the wake of Musk bankrolling Trump’s campaign and running the president’s government efficiency efforts last year. Musk was bad. Apart from the fact that he is not, because if it weren’t for his efforts we would not be seeing the evidence of what is going on in Iran (and Ukraine) right now. Like this:
All of this is happening while talking heads in the media are now beginning to question whether Reza Pahlavi is indeed the right person to lead the opposition. Or equally baffling: that the CIA and Mossad have planned and organized the protests in order to install a friendly regime in Tehran. It is quite alarming to see how these sort of ideas that totally ignore the agency of the Iranian people get traction online. At the same time the rule of the previous Shah, who was deposed in 1979, is now under a microscope as if it were a determinant of his son’s behaviour some fifty years later. Interesting stuff, sure, but it does not help the Iranians on the streets who are risking it all right now.
The lack of unanimous support on all levels for Iran, by everyone, thus appears to be lacking somewhat. It’s strange, because if there is ever a humanitarian cause to support and help ring in freedom and democracy, it is this. But note that ever since its establishment in 1979 the Islamic Republic has counted on significant support in pockets of western intelligentsia and media which was directly translated into access and diplomatic capital. One of the reasons the Iranian regime has held on for so long is exactly that, the belief that there was an equal partner that the world could do business with. Even the Trump administration initially believed it, at least that was the impression it was giving by continuing the nuclear talks.
That is now turning, hopefully. The US president has consistently called out the bloody mess and today put this out, note the time stamp:
This is similar not in words, but in spirit, to what George H.W. Bush communicated to the Shiite rebels in southern Iraq at the end of the Gulf War in 1991. Yet Bush, despite his words, stayed within his UN mandate to liberate Kuwait, never moved into Iraq proper and it allowed Saddam Hussein to violently crackdown on the Shiite communities in Iraq’s southern river delta. And that contributed to a second Gulf War conducted by George Bush Jr. twelve years later.
All of this to say is that: (a) calls for action do not always translate into effective support as there are significant political and military risks; and (b) even with US intervention there may still be a lot of blood on the streets of Iran before it can see a return to freedom and peace. Trump could also exploit the fissures Iran’s leadership, take out Khamenei and strike a deal with the generals that step in which could involve some financial incentives. Who knows. I sincerely hope Trump will intervene and help with whatever means to end it all, but please be realistic with expectations.
The level of suppression by the Iranian regime is vast, it uses all tools at its disposal and reaches many corners. German media reported today for example that in Southern Iran gangs with knives and axes have started to attack regime opponents. Add to this the live rounds being fired on demonstrators in the larger cities and it is not hard to see that the number of dead hit 12,000 dead today according to a number of online reports.
And arrests are being made, followed by torture and death sentences. One of them is Erfan Soltani (photo above) who was arrested a few days ago and charged with “waging war against God”. He was sentenced to be executed tomorrow, Wednesday. A large online campaign is going on right now to get his name out in the hope that making him famous will at least get him a reprieve from being hanged. That is why he is featured here, please share and say his name in the short time window we have.
And that short time window also applies to the revolution itself. It needs a dramatic intervention for the slaughter to end soon.
Do you have some ideas as to what US intervention could contribute to a good outcome for the people of Iran. The most important things would be providing communications and cutting off weapons and other support to the current regime. The sanctions are supposed to be doing that, could they be made more effective?
"ideas that totally ignore the agency of the Iranian people" This seems quite a common thing. One also sees it in claims that it is western governments that are behind the resistance the Ukraine people are putting up to Russia or the claims today that the coastal First Nations in BC are somehow being manipulated by American interests. Denial of agency is how those who want to embed the status quo try to make people working for change illegitimate.
I hear your call to repeat Erfan Soltani's name. See my Bluesky feed.
What parts of western intelligentsia and media have given the Iran regime support? It would help to understand who these people are and what the support has been.
Morally bankrupt. That’s all I can say about the left wing blob.