Into Lebanon
A long postponed escalation is unfolding while diplomacy ends, for now
Around the middle of last century Lebanon was a majority Christian Arab nation which enjoyed great relations with its neighbours. And although as an Arab nation it was formally at war, its Christian groups and militias often collaborated with Israel. Moreover it was a centre of opulent wealth and was often labeled the ‘Switzerland of the Middle East’. Its harmony and its religious diversity (Sunni and Shia Muslims, Druze and Maronite, Orthodox and Roman Catholic Christians) met its tragic end in a long ranging and bloody civil war (1975-90), a conflict not helped by the presence of Palestinian refugees and the various armed groups they brought in with them. The Christian majority is now reduced to about a third of the population with the dominant group being the Shia (at some 40%) who are largely represented by Hezbollah which is best known for its armed terrorist wing. Hezbollah has been supported on many different levels by first Syria and now by Iran. They have effectively become the ruling entity and in a way have destroyed what was left of a civic and collaborative society that crossed cultural and religious boundaries.
Worse, by acting as Iran’s proxy Hezbollah has driven the country into war with Israel in the bizarre circumstance where neither the Israelis nor any of Lebanon’s constituent tribes have any claim on each other’s territory. In fact, two years ago a remaining maritime boundary issue between Lebanon and Israel was settled amicably under the guidance of the US. Yet, ever since October 8th, 2023 Hezbollah has incessantly launched attacks on northern Israel with some 8,800 missiles, numerous drones, wounded 325, murdered 45 (including the 12 Druze kids playing soccer in Majdal Shams), while displacing some 80,000 Israelis from their homes. And that is not mentioning the thousands of acres land burnt and the deep disruptions to Israel’s already challenged economy. And dare we mention, totally ignoring and disrespecting UN resolution 1701 which ended the 2006 hostilities and basically laid out how Hezbollah should behave itself. And for what? To support Hamas? To fulfill Iran’s grotesque vision of the Middle East?
None of this is sustainable for any sovereign nation and nor is it for Israel. However its focus was on Gaza and both domestic pressures and international diplomatic efforts forced Israel to not fully engage and treat the north as an issue to be ‘managed’. But the political calculations have changed now that Gaza is almost (but not quite) finished as an active battlefield, the US is in election season and diplomacy has largely failed on all fronts. Israel’s hand has been forced and note that having twice been dragged into a Lebanon war (in 1982 by Palestinians and in 2006 by Hezbollah), no one in Israel, left or right, is interested in another adventure in Lebanon again. All of that changed last week and it is useful to sum it up in a, more or less, chronological way:
The massive, two-day, pager attack on Hezbollah which so far has claimed 42 deaths and some 3,000 injured. It has not officially been claimed by Israel, but it is fair to say this was one of its most precise and ingenuous military moves, in history, ever. Now, was it timed or was it discovered forcing Israel to quickly pull the trigger? We do not know but …
… it created an incredible tactical opportunity and not long thereafter, Israel took out another Hezbollah top leader, Ibrahim Aqeel, in Beirut on Friday …
… which was followed over the weekend by massive Israeli strikes all over Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, while at the same time Hezbollah ramped up its attacks on northern Israel and striking deeper (Haifa and Nazareth came under fire) than was the case before.
The word on the street is that Israel has dealt a massive blow to Hezbollah and hopes it can so persuade the Lebanese group to retreat and relinquish the hold it has on Israel’s north. Hezbollah and Iran do not have the capabilities to strike back in the way they would probably wish, but they do have enough missiles, drones and terror cells to keep disruptions and attacks going for quite a while. Expect for these hostilities to continue for a at least a few more weeks. There are two possible game changers: (1) Israel decides to physically go into Lebanon with tanks and infantry and drive Hezbollah out of Lebanon’s south to create a security zone, or (2) a possible ceasefire miraculously sees the light of day (with the help of the US and other regional players).
Reactions in the West
Again, Israel has been boxed in locally on the ground, but also by the US to not escalate and resolve the lethal state of affairs on its northern border. It was an impossible situation and the logjam appears to have been broken last week, at least for now. And let it be repeated, this is not the warmongering Nethanyahu western media are so keen to describe, any Israeli leader would have had to make the call to address the north in a far more decisive way. No leader can stand by when its citizens are targeted, killed, displaced and schools are closed for a year. That said the reactions in many circles in the West from progressive political parties to AOC to even Amnesty International have again focused on Israel being the ‘aggressor’ or the ‘terrorist’. This from the folks who have remained silent in the face of the ongoing onslaught on Israel and Jews globally for almost a full year now.
What’s more concerning is the absolute lack of basic historical understanding when these gratuitous opinions are released and which somehow get media and institutional attention everywhere. They have been ramped up and have become far more aggressive than at any time during the past twelve months such that even a targeted precision attack on a group that has actually quite a bit of American blood on its hands now is a ‘random’, ‘dystopian’ terrorist move that needs to be investigated and condemned. All with one goal: weaken Israel’s hand and by calling for trade boycotts and full weapon embargoes it is nothing less than a deliberate effort to undermine Israel’s security and very existence.
But if anything has been made clearer over the past week is that Israel is actually the most resourceful and creative force to stand up to a deadly foe that a lot of Western democracies so mysteriously seek to placate.
Things Lebanese
While we are on the subject, last year I ventured a bit into how music, and in particular Mizrahi artists, had played a role in shaping Israeli culture and society. Music crosses the region’s cultures and religions and if you think Lebanon you say ‘dabke’. It is a sort of line dancing to the tunes of a pretty intense beat, practiced all over Lebanon, Syria and also by Palestinians, usually at parties and weddings. Two weeks ago I actually attended a wedding here in Canada where the bride was of Christian Lebanese descent and the better part of the evening was devoted to this phenomenal dance. A few people start and lead and then it keeps going for most of the evening, I was thrilled to join in as well. This is one of the best dabke examples I could find on YouTube, enjoy:
Photo: funeral of some slain Hezbollah members last week (Photo by ANWAR AMRO / AFP).
The elections in the last couple decades in the US have been getting tighter, probably reflecting the divisiveness here. I think that's why we get Kamala Harris saying we will never let you down Israel but in the next sentence saying she supports the Palestinians --the voting is so close she needs to pander to the far left, all of which makes the US unable to deliver decisive policy. I don't know why the US would support another Islamic terrorist state in the region or why Israel is subject to so much scrutiny as an amazing thriving democracy we should be wholeheartedly embracing.