Into a New Year
Another year of escalating global conflict gets going
Yes, we took a short break and there was some great end of year partying going on, but history really does not stop over the holidays. The key conflicts in Ukraine and Iran levelled up, Brazil got a new president, Israel got a new government, Trump’s tax returns were released and here in Canada I am hearing rumours about a possible election sometime later this year. Brace yourself for what is coming, here is a short update.
Quite frankly, president Zelensky’s New Year’s speech was something else. I am not sure who is scripting and producing these, but they deserve an Oscar for impact and effectiveness. Not only did he summarize the dynamics of this terrible conflict to date, but he laid out the roadmap of what the next phase will entail. The Biden administration has tacitly left the definition of the endgame to Zelensky, and in doing that it has signed up for a major effort on the battlefield where almost anything will be possible. This means we will see continued Ukrainian advances that the West will have little choice but to keep supporting with Russia being steadily backed into a corner where it just can’t possibly win. It will now be a matter of resourcing that effort on both sides with weapons and people where a new mobilization by Putin is rumoured to come soon. Russia is taking blow after blow and desperation has increased so much that Russian TV now champions death as the justifiable sacrifice that its citizens should now aspire to. It is bringing the war to every level of Russian society. Remember who popularized the term ‘total war’ and how that tactic worked out ?
On our side we are sinking deeper into this conflict and the resulting crises over energy, raw materials and food while still manageable will start to erode the West’s relative strength. There is one party that will benefit from this and that is China as Niall Ferguson explains in this must-read essay. Conclusion: escalation into a full global conflict is very likely and the ‘authoritarian camp’ has strong papers to do well in the long run, as opposed to our dithering democracies who at the same time have failed to think through the resource and logistical aspects of such a long term conflict.
Who is in that camp of authoritarians, by the way? Well, since Lula took over as president in Brazil a few days ago, the term ‘BRIC’ countries was dusted off once more as he is more likely to steer the ‘B’ back into the group that also comprises Russia, India and China. They used to be close collaborators, in particular given their similar stages of economic development and overall strategic interests. These are evidently not aligned with what Western democracies view as their long term objectives. The first invite from China to Brazil has already gone out shortly after Lula’s inauguration.
For good measure, there are some client states that work closely together with some of team BRIC’s constituent members and the most notable one is Iran (the other one of course is North Korea). Protests continued over the past few weeks in many Iranian cities and the concurrent government crackdown continues unabated. While many of us hope and see 2023 as a year of real change in Iran, the omens are not particularly good at present. A few things to consider:
The repression and terror unleashed by the state is lethal and total. It requires a far more organized effort including armed resistance to succeed against the level of force that the state now deploys.
It is hard to keep protesting for ordinary citizens: it will affect work, income and in the already devastated state of Iran’s economy any prolonged disruption will bite very hard. The fuel to keep the protests going may run out.
And: who will take the regime’s place? Although rumours are spreading on how the Iranian opposition is now getting organized, there is no unifying figure and support mechanism (much like Khomeini was in the late 1970s) to help accelerate toppling the mullahs.
The one wild card could be the armed forces changing course and sway their support to the protestor’s side. This is, as it is in most revolutions, the best possible option as the timelines will be short and the potential for bloodshed limited if this were to happen. It is far from clear however how this scenario could now materialize in Iran given how president Ebrahim Raisi has purged the government apparatus and is now asserting full control over all of its branches.
What will happen though are mass protests all over the world this coming weekend. Today marks the third anniversary of the killing of former IRGC head Qasem Soleimani. The missiles Iran launched in retaliation for that against US targets in Iraq inadvertently took down a Ukrainian airliner on January 8, 2020. That will be remembered this coming weekend, so keep an eye open of what will take place where, it will include rallies by both sides in and outside Iran.
Photo: I always try to bring some original colour to the updates here, but it’s hard sometimes because of copyright etc. We rang the new year in with Red Chair, a Whistler, BC, Canada based band. Hire them for your event if you are in their area. They are awesome.
Side thought: China releasing formerly locked down COVID avoiding citizens anxious to explore the world as tourists is an army that will seriously erode health care in their visits to countries just trying to maintain the tsunamis of change.