Increments

Israel thwarts a massive missile attack while life goes on

The reason Israel is still standing and actually growing into its role as a Middle East superpower is because of its formidable military capabilities. The much anticipated response to the elimination of Hezbollah’s Fuad Shukr was on its way although there was of course no certainty as to its timing. Iran also kept indicating that some sort of a military response to Ismail Haniyeh’s killing in Tehran was forthcoming. It proved to be an excruciating wait for Israel.

But early Sunday morning Israeli intelligence launched a massive strike with a reported hundred fighter jets into Lebanese territory at around 4:30AM local time, pre-empting a targeted barrage of Hezbollah missiles on key targets in central Israel scheduled for 5AM. Yes, the attack was supported by some amazing intelligence about what was going to happen and the strike that neutered Hezbollah’s lethal plans ensured the destruction of a large number of rocket launch sites and related equipment. As a result not a single Hezbollah missile hit target. An amazing move by the Israelis, again, but it is not hard to see what the damage could have been had this pre-emption not taken place: the target was Israel’s heartland.

In a subsequent statement Hezbollah’s leader Nasrallah hinted at this being the ‘first phase’ of its response to Israel without alluding to the abject failure it of course had turned out to be. It is not to say that Israel is on top of this as more surprises may be on their way. Hezbollah is far from defeated while Israel’s north is still uninhabitable, Iran is still scheming in the background and most of the world is now focused on Gaza without taking in what is happening on Israel’s northern front. In a way this global fixation on the suffering in Gaza has created an opportunity for Iran and Hezbollah to keep pushing the envelope in a relatively unhindered way. At the same time they are telegraphing that if Israel and Hamas settle on a deal, the missiles will go silent.

But that raises one key question: for how long? In other words, the global fixation on Israel getting to terms with Hamas and other Palestinian factions and reach a settlement ignores that pertinent question.

Let’s assume some sort of a two-state solution is worked out, Hamas is done and a more moderate leadership takes control in the West Bank and Gaza. And the hostages are out. Would that mean Hezbollah and Iran pull back? At most they would go quiet for some time while they keep building their capabilities. They are playing the long game. Think of the near impossibility of framing an Israeli-Palestinian deal and then consider making Hezbollah/Iran a part of that same framework. It is not even an option to consider that. There is no ‘grand deal’ for the world’s most turbulent and divided continent, the Middle East. Only very incremental arrangements can work and one of these increments would be for Israel to cripple Hezbollah once and for all.

In the meantime hostage and ceasefire discussions continue and are expected to resume face-to-face in Cairo, again, later this week. But rumours are Hamas is not interested in a deal and in fact may be counting on a real and far more dramatic escalation in the north which would instantly improve their negotiating position. There are too many variables at play with too many parties in a highly uncertain environment. That’s the best I can give you.

‘We Will Dance Again’

And talking about the hostages, remember the call from the Nova music festival survivors? Yes, even under the most difficult of circumstances and amidst the deepest trauma there has to be a way to recognize that life eventually does have to go on. Liberated hostage Noa Argamani and her father appeared at a dance in her honour in Israel a few days ago and she highlighted that sentiment perfectly:

“It’s not ideal that we’re having this party while there’s still a war in the background while our soldiers are on the battlefield, while there are still 109 hostages there in Gaza, including my partner, Avinatan Or, who we miss terribly. But at the same time, I’m happy to celebrate life itself with all of you. To remember that we have to value every day in this life, we have to celebrate every moment that we’re here.”

And I think she’s right.

Photo above: Israel’s defence minister Yoav Gallant flanked by Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Charles Brown Jr. and IDF Chief Herzi Halevi taken a few days ago, highlighting the close US involvement in this never ending war.