Harris and Hostages
Biden bows out and a hostage deal may be in the works
Apparently only his inner circle was aware of it and many high-ranking Democrats were totally surprised. Political observers who had been saying it would come later in the week, after Nethanyahu’s Washington visit this week, got it wrong. Kamala Harris did not know until Sunday morning. Yet it came, yesterday. With a tweet. Elon Musk’s platform that many had deemed to be history and only an echo chamber for right-wingers was now the forum for Joe Biden, the 46th president of the United States to announce he was not running again and end his decades long political career. And within the hour it was followed by another tweet endorsing Kamala Harris for the presidency. Not long thereafter the Clintons weighed in with their support for Harris and it was all done in the space of a few hours on a Sunday afternoon in July. As I am writing this almost 24 hours later there is still no word from Biden, no speech, no press conference, nothing. It is by all accounts an unusual and even weird chain of events.
The pressure on Biden of course was phenomenal and he must have understood that there was no viable way to retain the nomination and be re-elected. And in order to pre-empt a divided convention as well as, not unimportantly, preserve the close to $100 million that had been donated to the Biden-Harris campaign he rolled the dice and anointed Kamala Harris.
The Democrat’s progressive wing will be far from enamoured of Kamala and will see the move as yet another orchestrated coup in which the party’s members had no say at all. And they’re right about that. On her own Harris has never impressed as a stand-alone candidate not even breaking into double digits during the primaries in which she ran in the run up to the 2020 elections. Her own party often distanced itself from her and she was seen, as compared to her predecessors, as a weak Veep. Interestingly the Obamas have been silent so far which is telling. Yet on the positive side she is, turning sixty this year, a ‘young’ candidate compared to Trump. Her prosecutorial experience and wit will be great skills to have during a brutal campaign and possible debates and she also could excite immigrant and female swing voters who have been sliding into Trump’s direction over the past few weeks. That is just a quick assessment of her viability as a candidate, we will discuss her political positions, on which there is ample concern, later.
It is worth pointing out that some very capable governors were beginning to get traction over the past few weeks. Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania), Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan) as well as Senator Mark Kelly (Arizona). They all come from important swing states and all have strong resumes. A good question to ask is if they were told to hold back or did they think it would be wise to sit this one out and launch a serious attempt in 2028 or even 2032? Probably the latter. All of them are strong contenders however to join Harris on the ticket.
The next four months will be wild and initial polls show a close race between Trump and Harris and it will come down again to the famous swing states. It is not hard to see how Trump will really have to lean on JD Vance to bring it home. The Democratic Convention from August 19 to 22 in Chicago will give us more direction on how strong Harris’ position really is and what direction her campaign will take. She does not have a lot of time.
Hostages
Things are moving on the hostage front with ongoing negotiations in Cairo and Nethanyahu travelling to Washington for his speech to congress, accompanied by a number of hostage families who will meet with National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. There is incredible pressure on the government in Israel where the anger and frustration over the hostage situation is boiling over, two more were reported dead today. This is the case in particular now that the nine-month mark has been passed with serious fears over the women hostages that have been raped. The concern is that if some are pregnant (apparently there may be intelligence that this is the case) they will have to give birth in incredibly unsafe and unhygienic circumstances. It is not a straightforward deal and hopefully there is progress soon. Bring them home, now.
Photo: yesterday I attended the weekly hostage rally in downtown Vancouver. The crowd is getting a bit smaller, we are in mid-summer after all, but a core group keeps the pressure on, on what was the 289th day of the hostage taking.
People speak as if a ceasefire will bring about the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages held by Hamas, dead or alive. That is not what is on offer.
Instead, there’s to be an exchange of at least 10 to 1 imprisoned terrorists for each hostage with Israel having no veto power over which terrorist is being released. You don’t need the powers of prophecy to know how that’s going to work out. And Hamas is not required to provide proof of life (after over nine months) nor even a full accounting of who they have. If Israel believes Hamas retains hostages and Hamas just denies it, what is the mechanism for accountability?
And putting all those matters aside, any agreement that allows Hamas to remain in power will signal the political end not only of the PA but of any group of Palestinians who seek peace (not that any have put their heads over that particular parapet at the moment).
The other certainty with Hamas in control is that this ceasefire will prove as “permanent” as all the previous ones Hamas broke. No one in the West paid attention to Arafat when he likened the Oslo Accords to the Treaty of Hudaybiya. This “hudna” gained by Hamas will allow it to regroup, rearm and initiate future hostilities when it feels the time is right … and once again Israel will be blamed for defending itself in an incorrect manner.
This is a tragedy that is eminently foreseeable and, worse, avoidable. But it seems the world is happy to have Jewish blood shed to protect their own. That hasn’t worked in the past and there’s no reason to imagine a different outcome going forward.