Global Uncertainty Rules

But we can have a short break from finance and global affairs

Were it not for some financing deals there probably would have been a rapid drop in messages and mails as a short break is upon us. Still I notice quite a few people checking out for the Easter and Passover holidays. All good, the pace of business and news is running at such a fast clip these days that it is hard to disconnect and break, this weekend might prove to be one of those few opportunities to do that. Again, thanks for reading and in particular those who are taking out paid subscriptions to support this newsletter. I take your support seriously and will try to live up to the commitment to bring you ongoing news analysis and thoughts.

The one thing that occurred to me this week is how uncertainty has gripped us all and how international politics and economics have cast a dark spell over our world. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank only added fuel to the fire of doubt that was raging across investment communities. You can almost feel the trepidation when new opportunities hit the investment market and in the venture world I see a lot of struggles to get deals across the finish line. It still has not fully registered that the days of easy money are over and the push to lower interest rates now that inflation appears to be stabilizing indicate the urge to go back to where we were only fifteen months ago. It may not be that simple and the markets are certainly not seeing it that way: stock markets remain choppy, venture deals are in uncharted territory and the price of gold is hitting new highs.

The news on global relations is not much better with ongoing dire news from the Ukrainian frontlines, unstable and unpopular governments (almost any western democracy right now), shifting alliances in the Middle East and as of yesterday a politically deeply divided Israel is under missile attacks again. Resolving Ukraine will be a key ingredient to get clarity and the pressure for a diplomatic solution is increasing, as evidenced by the Macron and Von der Leyen visit to Beijing this week, although it was not all that successful. A solution will take a large chunk of political and economic uncertainty off the table and allow the world to refocus on other crises, but it will be a rocky and violent road before we can get to some sort of negotiated conclusion.

So with that, enjoy the short break. Happy Easter and Happy Passover.