Gaza Endgame?

Trying to understand the negotiations and what can unwind the Gordian knot

It somehow defies logic. Despite a ‘Berlin in April 1945’ setting, Hamas continues to be able to stretch out the war, inflict damage on both Israeli troops and on its own citizens while seemingly holding firm during hostage release and ceasefire negotiations. Yet things have changed over the past few months and they contribute to a different dynamic:

• Israel’s success against Iran which has not only further isolated Hamas, but also enabled Israel to refocus on Gaza;

• The IDF has been able to progress militarily in the Gaza strip itself, capturing more territory and further degrading Hamas;

• The provision of aid directly to Gazans by the US and Israel, circumventing Hamas is proving to be a game changer on the ground;

• Renewed pressure by the US to end the war and drive the Middle East to a new peaceful equilibrium with Syria and Saudi Arabia playing a larger role.

We should also note that domestically in Israel there are two key developments that have added to this dynamic: ever more pressure to ensure that the remaining 50 hostages (of which 20 are presumed to be alive) are released now, whatever the cost. And, somewhat underreported maybe, the IDF is incurring serious and increasing casualties with indications that the troops are exhausted and that it is time to hit the ‘pause button’ in Gaza.

The Dilemma

As discussions on a deal have progressed, it is important to note that there are two distinct routes as to how a hostage and ceasefire deal could take shape:

Scenario 1 - often referred to as the Witkoff concept. This involves a staged release of hostages over a sixty-day period during which Hamas and Israel continue discussions around a lasting conclusion of hostilities. Israeli troops will maintain a presence in certain areas of Gaza. The hostage families have rightly cried foul over the added uncertainty and the prospect of a 'selection process’ where about half of the living hostages would be held back in the incredibly inhuman conditions they are in. That said, it appears that this is the deal that is currently being hammered out in Qatar.

Scenario 2 - this approach was last discussed with Hamas in April. Here we will see an immediate release of all the hostages in return for: ending the war, full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, releasing Palestinian prisoners and a significant increase of humanitarian aid and reconstruction materials. The burning question to be asked should be: is this scenario on the table right now and if not, why not?

The Nethanyahu government favours the first option as it will give it time to negotiate further details around how Gaza is to be managed while still controlling the button to restart the war at any given moment. It kicks the can of ending the war down the road while giving Israel more direct room to determine what is going on in, and what will eventually happen to, Gaza. The second scenario resolves the hostage situation and pauses the war, but risks a return or rebuild of Hamas in a controlling role in Gaza.

Now from a humanitarian perspective the second route would be preferable as it would get the hostages back on day one of course, so no dispute here. The counterpoint however to this is that to avoid any future hostage takings it is imperative that Hamas be totally destroyed and that Gaza is fully neutralized. And that would only work by sticking with the lengthier and more open ended first option.

So you can now see the moral and political dilemmas that are framing the Israeli positions while also taking into account that for each scenario Hamas has to be agreeable to work along the agreed parameters. That brings us to the question as to where the actual negotiations now stand and what progress is being made in the two different ‘talking’ locations.

What Happened in Washington?

We don’t really know. Beyond the somewhat tacky expressions of love for Trump by Nethanyahu (presenting him with a nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize and a B-2 shaped mezuzah made from scraps of an Iranian missile) it is not clear what exactly was discussed and agreed. But we do know why, apart from celebrating the success of the Iranian operation, Nethanyahu was visiting: he needed support and concessions from the US to bring back home to Israel to help convince his coalition members that the hostage and ceasefire deal currently being negotiated is worth doing. These would include support for relocating the Gazan population southwards to Rafah, enabling voluntary emigration of Gazans, retaining IDF presence in certain corridors within Gaza as well as a continuation of the joint US-Israeli aid efforts.

What is happening in Doha?
A fair question is to ask what progress has been made in the Qatari capital where - separated in two different buildings - representatives from Israel and Hamas are with the help of their hosts discussing the final framework for a deal. Again, we don’t know the status of where things are at although there continue to be rumours that a deal is imminent and could be done by the end of this week. Trump signalled the same earlier today, but then we have heard these expressions of optimism before.

So?

There is no definitive answer as to where things stand right now. For myself I had to rerun the entire process in my head a few times will rewriting this entry for the newsletter, and then condense it so you know what is at play right now. I hope it helps. One thing is clear: a final settlement that brings back all the hostages, let alone a definitive and solid agreement on the future of Gaza is quite some ways off.

Photo: US veterans and Palestinian staff of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) led by the US and Israel active in Gaza. To date the GHF has provided over 66 million meals in Gaza, effectively cutting Hamas out of the process where it used force, intimidation and inflated prices to distribute international aid.