Europe's Mess

From Ukraine to Farmers to the Economy, things are not going well

With all the focus on the Middle East we might lose sight of what is going on in Europe. The start of the year in the old continent was not exactly one that would breed a lot of optimism. Let’s do a quick review.

Farmers

What started a few years ago in The Netherlands has this month spread to Germany, France, Belgium (see photo) and many other countries. Massive farmer protests that shut down entire cities and at times also resulted in chaos and violence. While some of the grievances may be industry specific, they do touch on issues felt across Europe by almost everyone: rising fuel costs, inflation, increased regulations, climate measures and fear of cheaper imports. Farming has become a difficult and costly profession and what started initially as venting on some local and industry specific issues is now coalescing into a continent wide protest that is starting to undermine the continent’s political consensus. This is the case in particular as farmer anger is directed at laws and regulations that originate in the European Union (EU) itself, each protest is deeply Eurosceptic and consequently challenging the authority of the EU itself. In highlighting the ever growing distance between citizens and the European super-state, the farmers are making a valid and thought provoking point.

Politics

So the protests in Brussels were planned as they coincided with an EU Summit. The EU will have elections as a whole this year, and right-of-centre parties, in particular the more populist variety, are expected to make strong gains across the board. You can now see how a sort of anti-Euro rebellion is taking shape and Brexit will have taught the continent that you ignore these sentiments at your peril. In Germany and France governments have moved rapidly to tone down some of their measures to placate the agricultural sector and in France that resulted in an end to the protests, for now.

In all this, the wind blowing from the far right is palpable. In Germany the polls have put the far-right ‘Alternative für Deutschland’ (AfD) party in second place which means an almost doubling of its electoral take compared to the last election. Protests against the AfD’s rise are taking place across Germany, a country which of course has a bit of a history with political experiments on the far end of the spectrum. The problem is not so much the issues that AfD is campaigning on like immigration, euro-skepticism and affordability as is the case in other countries. The concern is that these movements attract fringe characters who will not hesitate to push these parties into far more radical and potentially violent directions. In Germany’s case one could see a potential revival of ethno-centrist authoritarianism combined with pro-Russia and anti-Ukraine positions. A dangerous mix one might say.

Ukraine

And that brings us to the war that this month will mark its second and very sad anniversary. Rather than making any solid progress Ukraine is facing internal divisions, political disputes and ongoing carnage on the frontlines where Russia’s troops are holding the line. This summary is on point:

Nearly two years after Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine finds itself locked into a bloody war of attrition with a country that has more than three times as many people. It is not an even fight. Soldiers are tired. Civilians too.

One marker of that is that many Ukrainian refugees in Western Europe are more than pleased with where they have landed. They have found housing and jobs in often thriving and safe places and are not inclined to go back home anytime. Nor is there much appetite left to join the army given the state of affairs on the frontlines.

The West however is able to deliver support, the European Union just agreed to a $54 billion package to keep Ukraine’s economy afloat. Less certainty is there around much needed help on the military side where aid is moving slowly and that in turn impacts the frontlines.

There are still many ways the Ukraine War can go, but what is getting more and more clear in European capitals is that Russia is stronger and may have an equally growing appetite. As one journalist put it: analysis in Moscow is characterized by both arrogance and ignorance. With a war machine that has regained its footing, that is one toxic mix in particular as NATO may fray in the event Trump becomes president in November.

Dutch Paralysis

In the meantime the Dutch are without a government as Geert Wilders and his Freedom Party have not been able so far to convert their big win in November into a coalition government. A new parliament was installed with one of Wilders’ party members as speaker of the house in December, but the old governing coalition is still running the country on a ‘caretaker’ basis. The negotiations to form a new coalition are ongoing, but bringing the four designated parties (Freedom Party = far-right, Free Market Liberal = centre-right, Farmers-Citizens = centre-right and New Social Contract = centre) together with a solid plan to govern is not an easy task. Key hurdles apparently are around finding a workable consensus on immigration and balancing the budget. A report of progress by the lead negotiator is expected for the middle of this month.

The big question is now if these four parties can actually make things work, or miss the opportunity to complete the mission in which case new elections may not be far off. Wilders is now putting this forward as a distinct possibility and a threat: he is surging in the polls and would increase his already sizeable share of the vote if new elections were held today. That may give the other parties pause to walk away and it is also something the Dutch don’t want and certainly don’t deserve. Given the multitude of crises that the country is facing it is time the politicians set aside egos and agendas and get to work.

And that is not just a recommendation for Dutch politicians. Europe is sliding into a deeper crisis of confidence, economic turbulence as well as grave security threats while the legitimacy of the EU itself is increasingly questioned. Time to get to work.