Ending Week Three

A round-up and analysis of where we are now

Time for the end of the week wrap-up. There is so much happening simultaneously that I think it is best to break it down in a few buckets and summarize where things stand in each area.

Going into Gaza - multiple incursions by the IDF have taken place this week to destroy Hamas infrastructure and also to find and liberate the hostages. No massive ground offensive has taken place yet, despite many Israeli assurances that it is still imminent. The reasons for the delay: the hostage situation, the difficulty in planning and executing it and US pressure to take it step by step while having a plan for post-invasion ready are a just a few of the factors that are impacting the decision to attack. But we are also hearing rumours that the Israeli war cabinet is divided and that a full-scale invasion could prompt Hezbollah in the north to attack Israel. That would create a two-front war that could become extremely dangerous for Israel, not an existential war, but close.

Israel’s Conundrum, Bibi - and that is why roughly half of the Israeli population does not favour a full ground invasion into Gaza according to local media. At the same time the debate over how the massacre of October 7 could happen is gaining momentum. While Nethanyahu has given a few speeches while hinting at his responsibility, there are more and more calls across Israel that resolving this conflict should be in the hands of new set of political and military leaders. A team not tainted by Israel’s divisive political turmoil of the past few years and not directly linked to the disastrous misreading of the events leading up to the war it is now in.

But make no mistake. Even Israel’s progressive left has now given up and the country is more determined than ever to defeat any enemy. Zero interest in a ceasefire, no interest in a ‘two-state’ solution. The military is focused and poised. And while we focus on Gaza the missiles have kept raining down on Tel Aviv, Petach Tikva and Rishon LeZion this week. This is Israel’s civic and economic heartland and it has been shaken to its core.

America’s Role - yesterday reports came in - unverified - that American troops had landed in Israel to support counterattacks into Syria in the north. Interesting and not the first time we are hearing it. The naval presence, the involvement in taking down missiles aimed at Israel from Yemen (apparently with Eilat’s tourist industry as target) are showing how America is actively engaged. It also brings home the for Israel painful fact that it needs that support for its defence. Standing alone, despite the rhetoric, is hard. And then the question becomes how much domestic support Biden has for this active level of involvement (while being engaged in Ukraine and Taiwan) which will have to be measured in years rather than weeks.

Gaza and Hamas - there is no denying that casualties are mounting in Gaza, although there is good reason to question the numbers coming from Hamas and the UN. First aid supplies (water, food, medicine) are entering the corridor as we speak. Most of this week there was a debate on fuel deliveries, the Palestinian side arguing its needs this to generate energy for hospitals in particular. The Israeli side was quick to point out that there was still enough fuel present in Gaza, even providing photographic evidence of that. Moreover the fuel use may not be all for humanitarian purposes: it propels the missiles that have been fired at Israel this week and it lights up the tunnel network Hamas uses for its military. On that note another key revelation came in today: Hamas’ central command center is located right underneath the central Shifa Hospital in Gaza. Good to know.

So you see: not terribly dedicated to its people, Hamas. One of the most outspoken former members (and son of one its founders) is Mosab Hassan Yousef, here grilled by Piers Morgan in a revealing interview. Useful to get some inside information and at the same time a deeper analysis of the terror group. Yousef himself checked out of the effort when he witnessed Hamas murdering its own inside Israeli prisons.

Anti-Semitism - The attacks on Jews across the world have accelerated. We have arrived at the moment where mezuzot are now used as identifiers to select and attack homes. For what is happening in the US, check out Eve Barlow’s merciless takedown of the forces that are taking us back to the 1930s and beyond. In The Netherlands, in only one week, the following happened:

• Kristallnacht commemoration cancelled

• Ceremony & lecture at Westerbork camp - cancelled

• Jewish kids leaving regular schools - bullied

• Jewish schools - closing regularly after warnings

• Maccabi soccer team - harassed

• ‘From the river to the sea’ used in speeches in parliament

• Israeli restaurant closes just in case

It has been pointed out that Muslim immigrants, woke and progressive forces as well as the far right have found each other to accelerate the 21st century version of Jew hate. In the Middle Ages it was Jewish religion that was persecuted by the Catholic church, later the target became Jewish wealth (as Jews often could not own land they were sort of forced to go into finance and trade) and then came Hitler who identified Jews as a less than desirable race. The 21st century has developed a new theme: the connections with the land of Israel is the core reason to marginalize and attack Jews. And this after Israel itself was the victim of the most gruesome assault on its soil ever.

My biggest concern is that the hate and attacks are taking place in particular at US universities where the next generation of top lawyers and politicians is being groomed and educated and this group is now fully immersed in the hate for Jews and Israel. Yes, Joe Biden and Antony Blinken may be the last of a generation of progressive politicians well-disposed to Israel. And given the hard right’s increasing isolationist stance there is not much hope on that side of the aisle either. The Jewish nation increasingly stands alone.

So here are the five buckets. And in each case we will see movements and developments over the weekend. But also, each has a bigger questions mark as to what the longer term consequences are and their impact on the world. Now three weeks ago, October 7, 2023 changed everything and we are only beginning to see the contours of its impact.

Thanks for reading, subscribing, commenting, sharing, liking and sending me links. See you next week.

Photo: the Arab market in Jerusalem’s Old City on a busy Saturday when the Jewish side of the city is closed for Shabbat. If you like sweets and candy, this is the place to be.