End of Week Updates

Ukraine, Taiwan, Macron

Thanks all of you for reading and commenting and of course the readers that convert their free subscription to a paid one, it is really appreciated and it gives me the encouragement to do more with this newsletter. Let’s wrap up the week with a recap of the key events with a focus on the war in Europe.

Ukraine

The big news of course was the leak in the Pentagon by a 21-year-old employee of the Air National Guard who was apprehended yesterday. Let’s leave aside what motivated the guy and how such a junior a person could get his hands on really sensitive material; the question is of course: what did we learn from this unexpected data dump?

The key thing that emerged is something that most of us were suspecting for quite a while and that is that Ukraine does not have the depth in terms of resources to win this war. Even the planned spring counter offensive (which is not yet underway) is unlikely to bring what most in the West were hoping. The other significant piece was the likely presence of British special forces on the ground in Ukraine which is fodder for the pro-Russian and anti-War camps of course as it is evidence that NATO is sliding deeper and deeper into this war. It is not entirely crazy to think that such a NATO presence in Ukraine will get us further into this morass, remember that is how things in Vietnam got started: by sending ever more ‘advisors’. Other tidbits point to how the US kept a close watch on what Israel was doing in relation to Ukraine and how the feared mercenary Wagner group was operating as part of Putin’s forces.

The Wagner group was also directly implicated this week in the ever darker side of this war as being responsible for the beheading of a Ukrainian soldier by Russian forces. This horror was videotaped and circulated worldwide, notably on Telegram. While research was initiated into the origins and timing of the tape, the key advice all over social media was: don’t watch it, you cannot unsee it and it is deeply traumatizing. I didn’t and neither should you, the mere knowledge of its existence is enough to know that even the darkest speculations about Russian behaviours eventually come true. There is no bottom to the pit of endless war crimes.

Taiwan and Macron

The entire treatment of Ukraine is of course a study into how to work with and support Taiwan, in particular as China keeps ramping up the temperature, last week with military exercises following a Taiwanese presidential visit to the US. French president Emmanuel Macron visited Beijing and on his way back to France outlined to journalists that Europe would not be dragged into a conflict with China over Taiwan by Washington. Worse, he noted to the press that Europe would not follow the US agenda in general and be a force on its own in a ‘multi-polar world’. This is exactly what Xi loves to hear, a divided West with multiple centres of power which would give him a relatively free hand - think also about how a weakened Russia adds further strength to the new emperor. Of course, later this week these comments were walked back by the Élysée (while Macron himself was in Amsterdam for a state visit to The Netherlands), but it left a real bitter aftertaste around many western capitals.

As you can see, the global ground is shifting and a Europe independent of the US (something which De Gaulle already actively promoted) remains an aspiration for some French and quite possibly German leaders, not realizing that they are not speaking on behalf of any other European nation. Besides, without the US this European project lacks any military strength to speak of, Ukraine is still standing because of Washington’s largesse, not because of EU efforts.

Macron however is wrapping up the week with good news, the French Constitutional Council has just approved his controversial law raising the retirement age to 64. Brace for more protests there, but at least the plans now stand on a strong legal foundation.

Next Week

Looking forward to the coming week as I am working on a longer piece on an issue near and dear to my heart and one that gets surprisingly and disappointingly little international attention. Stay tuned!