Eliminated

The death of Hassan Nasrallah is tipping the power balance in the Middle East

Like Hamas’ leader Yahya Sinwar, Hassan Nasrallah was a student of Israeli history and politics. The man who headed Hezbollah since the early 1990s was probably a far more formidable leader who managed to effectively take over an entire nation, Lebanon. Hezbollah also became one of the most well-armed and lethal terrorist armies in the Middle East and beyond, recall for instance the attack in 1994 on the Jewish Community centre in Buenos Aires which killed 85 people. When Sinwar attacked Israel now almost a year ago, Nasrallah joined but without fully escalating and doing just enough to rattle Israel and impart the idea that his group could do a lot more damage to Israel if it so wanted. This was a belief that was held across many foreign policy observers and media, Iran had indeed armed Hezbollah up to the hilt and was capable of carrying out a major attack on central Israel and its key infrastructure in order to bring Israel to its knees.

While Benjamin Nethanyahu delivered a fierce speech in front of the UN in New York yesterday, Israeli fighter jets managed at about the same time to deliver the final blow in a two-week long campaign that took out most of the Hezbollah leadership by eliminating Hassan Nasrallah. It was the final punch, timed appropriately. And like Sinwar, Nasrallah had fatally misjudged Israel’s resolve and capabilities.

Now it is important to understand that the Israeli armed forces had prepared for this scenario for well over decade with endless simulations, training, reconnaissance and meticulous planning. This as opposed to its spectacular failure on October 7th last year, it had been ready to go and neutralize the, in theory, far bigger threat of Hezbollah. And it should be noted that Hezbollah as a terror group was not just Israel’s enemy. It had grown so strongly in its regional leverage that it helped prop up Bashar al-Assad’s regime in the bloody Syrian civil war. Yesterday many in Syria celebrated and handed out candy following the news of Nasrallah’s death:

And Now?

Well, there is a lot that can happen here and it will start to unfold over the next week when not only Jews globally celebrate New Year, but also will remember the horrific events of October 7th, a year ago. Here are some points to be aware of:

1. Hezbollah is in disarray and it is not clear if it can recuperate and under new leadership regain its prominence. Israel will keep a tight leash on Lebanon and in particular see to it that Iran is not re-supplying and re-arming the group. A ground incursion to create a safety buffer in Southern Lebanon is still on the cards;

2. Iran has now lost Hamas and much of Hezbollah. The one dangerous ballistic missile today targeted at Israel actually came from Tehran’s other proxy army: the Houthis in Yemen. If that is what’s left of Iranian muscle outside its borders, it is not a lot. And note: there has not been any direct Iranian involvement to date, it was all done by proxy. But Iran will have to make a move in order to not lose face, or, if it does step back from the brink, Israel will have won this round of the Middle East wars. Not decisively, but resoundingly.

3. Gaza is out of the picture now. It has become a guerrilla war that Hamas with what it has left will fight and Israel will engage but not at the levels seen before. This also tragically means there is no real focus on the remaining hostages, not even in the international press where all eyes are now on Lebanon. This is, in particular for the families, a worst case scenario and the changes of somehow getting the hostages out of captivity is remote as diplomacy is all but dead and Israel is winning.

4. Nethanyahu’s star is rising again. The man who was deemed by some to be the worst Jewish leader ever (and that is some 3,500 years of history) has managed to regain the initiative and more importantly, is now delivering results. He will remain a divisive force in Israel and have a large chunk of the population against him no matter what, but for now he is off the hook. It will give him a lot more room to maneuver on all fronts including challenging’s Washington current foreign policy doctrine.

5. And on that note, internationally an epitaph is now being written on how the US and its allies have failed to frame a Middle East and in particular an Iran policy that could have contained all of this carnage at a much earlier stage. The idea that Iran and its ‘ring of fire’ proxies could be managed diplomatically and restrained over time ended more or less on October 7th last year, but somehow it limped along over twelve long months during which Israel was often restrained by the US in making decisive moves. That has ended over the past few weeks and more in particular yesterday with the elimination of Hassan Nasrallah.

So yes, another game changer. We are going into a phase of more uncertainty sure, but Israel has boldly re-arranged the power balance, reasserted deterrence and regained the initiative.

Photos: Nethanyahu gets battlefront updates after addressing the UN General Assembly, meanwhile in Israel defence minister Yoav Gallant was tracking progress together with the IDF leadership.