Disruption

America abandons the values and optimism that stabilized the post-war world

You know, sooner or later he would return. And in a twist of irony it is the very man whose portrait the sitting US president has put up in the Oval Office in an attempt to solidify his patriotic credentials. Yet Donald Trump’s view of the world is very different from the visionary moderate free marketeer whose abhorrence of appeasing evil was the cornerstone of his presidency. The man who knew that shared wealth and open trade would contribute to peace, freedom and stability globally. That man was also one of the very first in America - during his years of non-combat military service - to see the gruesome documentary evidence of what the Holocaust actually entailed long before the public saw it. His life work was dedicated to warn about the dark instincts of Nazism and Communism and that freedom was an extremely fragile thing, never to be taken for granted. Ronald Reagan embraced the most optimistic, progressive and forward looking form of conservatism you could imagine.

That is probably the last thing that can be said about the current occupant of the White House. Over the past few weeks he ditched America’s post-war framework for the world in the most unceremonious of ways possible. Indeed seven weeks into his second term it is clear we have passed the honeymoon phase of the Trump presidency and are now seeing the real machinations at work that are disrupting the world. Sure, the impulse to right the ship following the many failures and deliberate miscalculations during the Biden years was one of hope. Tweaking the behemoth that is the federal government, fixing the border and reeling in the excesses of wokism were the very things that gave Trump a decisive edge in America’s frustrated political centre. The debate of whether all of that is now going maybe too far and whereas Musk needs to be restrained - the first cabinet fights are a fact - is for another day.

But what we cannot leave undiscussed here is the stake that has been driven through eight decades of relative geopolitical stability. As noted before, there is some method to the apparent madness and we can to some extent justify unorthodox responses to a challenging global landscape. Russia and China have been actively undermining it with their various proxies for years now. Yet, Trump’s emerging America is no longer to be constrained by rules and conventions, partnerships and obligations, but increasingly by raw imperial power only. And that leads to a world divided by the strong on the one hand and the weak on the other, one where America itself has the extreme luxury of retreating on the secure and resource filled continent that it occupies.

Much of this new approach has rapidly crossed a line and is now contributing to actual casualties, fraught relations, a looming recession and a resulting unprecedented sense of chaos and uncertainty. The character assassination of Zelensky on social media, years in the works, got its terrible conclusion over the past few weeks. By ending the intelligence sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapons deliveries we are now witnessing in real-time how a country exposed is getting pounded by increasing aerial attacks from Russia. Many resulting casualties have been reported over the past week.

And then the daily rework of what tariffs are applied to who and when, are destroying the very framework of trust and the free flow of goods that brought unprecedented economic growth over the past decades, including for Americans. And it is not stopping there, the goal to actually degrade Canada’s sovereignty for instance is real. All of it is a retrograde move without any underlying economic logic, it is a reckless gamble driven by imperial instincts in an unmoored world. The markets last week responded as expected and there may be worse to come.

As for the Middle East last week made clear that Trump is less than interested in working with Israel as opposed to what so many hoped for when he took office. A presidential trip to Saudi Arabia is the works for later in April at which time a framework for the Middle East relations will no doubt be presented, including hopefully a conclusion to the hostage crisis. Trump is basically - get this - building on the Biden plans while trying (with Russia in a supporting role) to re-engage with Iran and find a nuclear settlement rather than a pre-emptive war. The entire idea of a joint US-Israeli attack now that Iran’s air defences are down has been relegated to the sidelines it appears. The momentum for this approach is gaining traction, yesterday Tucker Carlson emerged as the cheerleader for the argument that Iran is no threat. You are right to be confused.

Thankfully, the released hostages to date have benefitted from Trump’s direct involvement, making progress where Biden failed, and a small group of them toured western capitals to plead leaders to ensure that the remaining 59 come home as soon as possible. We will still have to see how the next phase here develops as the White House engaged directly with Hamas while talks in Qatar progressed. More in the days ahead.

So?

Yes, it is both the style and the substance that are prying our eyes open to a new world order. It is one of relentless disruption, reactive, without any clearly defined outcomes of what America envisions in the long run, leaving many nation states and the markets scrambling to figure out where we will go to next. What we are seeing is a well-coordinated effort where the White House, often supported by a cast of social media channels, are taking down the eighty-year old infrastructure that governed our world. And in doing so they are burying the legacy of a president who by now must be spinning in his grave.

Photos: chaos after another bombardment in the Kharkiv area in Ukraine. Trump visits Ronald and Nancy Reagan. And former hostage Eli Sharabi meets with Trump and British PM Keir Starmer.