Devastating Attack, Day Twelve
Biden's Crucial Visit, a Hospital in Gaza and a Challenged Region
So I have been trying hard to not fall into the trap of using ever escalating alarmist language, but once a renowned historian like Niall Ferguson starts hinting at World War 3, it is probably safe to look it into the eye and discuss it. Why? Because the crises now unfolding are interlinked (Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel) and the key players may use the current chaos to take advantage and further their interests in each area. An example would be how Russia steps up its efforts in Ukraine while creating chaos in the Middle East with a view to stretch American resources. That would benefit China when it comes to rolling up Taiwan. And Iran is stirring up trouble in Israel to not only help Russia and in an indirect way China, but to also deliver on its long-stated goal of wiping Israel off the map.
All of this is taking place against an extremely volatile environment where certain events (like yesterday’s explosion at the Baptist Hospital in Gaza) may prompt less rational characters to start playing or overplaying their hand. At some point things will spiral out of control with limited scope to put the genie back into the bottle. And that is why Biden is travelling to Tel Aviv today after which he will go to Amman, Jordan. Remember that Biden was loath to meet Nethanyahu only weeks ago in New York, and now he is zipping into a war zone where Air Force One will have to use all its state-of-the-art tricks to avoid missiles. That is highly significant, and Biden’s mission is to:
Express support for Israel;
Tell the Israeli leadership to measure their response to the Hamas attack and avoid mass casualties;
Signal to Iran and other regional players that any escalation will meet a US response;
Signal to Russia and China that the US is the leading superpower mediating in the Middle East and its primary deal broker;
Show the entire world that the 46th president of the US is taking that 3AM call (remember the election commercials) and is ready to shape history.
Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza
And what we feared most happened last night, a large number of casualties (although the exact number is far from certain) piled up following explosions at a Gaza Hospital and it put the focus on the methods of Israeli warfare. Or did it? Within moments the narrative changed and it became clear that based on video, Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) reports and analysis from various media close to the situation that Israel was not involved at all. And that is the most likely scenario as of this writing. Here’s why.
Video evidence surfaced of a botched missile attack in the area causing the blast (about 30% of rocket launches from Gaza fail in that way);
Hamas and Islamic Jihad have a track record of storing explosives at civilian sites so if one of their devices crashes back into a munition depot you can probably figure out what the wave of explosions will look like;
The IDF was apparently not directly operating in the area;
And as many commentators put it … why would Israel launch a bloody attack on civilians the moment Joe Biden is to set foot on Israeli soil? Would that not be the most self-defeating stupid move one can imagine?
And yes: Israel does not bomb civilian targets.
The trouble here is that the world, as if on standby for the moment, set off to denounce Israel for the casualties and destroyed hospital, the ‘war crimes’ accusations were flying around all over the place. No need to analyze, investigate, this is what Israel does according to the NYT, CBC, BBC and political leaders like Justin Trudeau and Frans Timmermans. We all know that the sympathy for the horrors in Israel inflicted by Hamas twelve days ago would wear thin soon, little did we know that there was such a keenness to deny Israel even the most basic measure of fact verification. Many are walking back the initial accusations and reports, among them the NYT who ran a new headline once facts started to contradict their initial report.
And what it does, as to my points above, is that reports like this will in a volatile environment unleash forces that feel justified to do anything by just referring to the tragedy at the hospital. Protests erupted in many cities and Israeli embassies came under attack in Turkey and Jordan. But we are not far from more terror attacks in European cities, increasing rocket launches on civilians targets in Israel from Gaza and yes, Hezbollah in Lebanon getting into the act. All they need is one more justification of Israeli misbehaviour. But do note that the mass casualties at the hospital are calculated into the Hamas plans, self-inflicted or accident, as it helps the anti-Israel narrative more than anything else.
The Region
What we should also realize is how the Hamas attack and resulting Middle East chaos is setting back the entire region after a few periods of short-lived hope. Moroccan-born Hudson Institute scholar Zineb Riboua reminded me of that this morning:
So there you have it. The Hamas-Israel fight has put the world on full alert and is enabling the most radical forces to regroup and take advantage of the chaos and uncertainty. In that they’re supported by the three capitals of darkness: Moscow, Beijing and Tehran. I don’t envy Joe Biden. But it may well be his moment to shine.