Deep Dutch Discontent
An upset in provincial elections: it shifts the balance of power and impacts other democracies
They made the news worldwide not too long ago. The Dutch farmers opposition to new legislation to curb nitrogen emissions (including potential forced buy-outs by the government) sparked nationwide protests. They also brought real momentum to a new political party, the Farmer Citizen Movement which only has one seat in the Dutch lower house which holds 150 seats. Its party leader is Caroline van der Plas, a former journalist, who has not only become the voice of the farmers, but generally of the deep discontent the Dutch feel with their current governing coalition. Last Wednesday the party swept provincial elections in an unprecedented way and in percentage points became the largest party in the country. As the provincial state houses elect the Dutch senate, the new political movement not only holds the balance of power in the country’s upper house (which will have to evaluate and vote for the controversial nitrogen emission laws) but is also set to be the dominant player in the provinces who are actually tasked with implementing the law if it comes to fruition.
What took so many by surprise was the fact that not only did the party do quite well in rural areas as expected, it also scored big upsets in the cities. In other words: the farmers were only a very small part of the broad vote of discontent. Anger over the child benefits affair, the gas disaster in one of the northern provinces and the way and the tone by which the current coalition has forced through certain measures (a parliamentary inquiry of its approach to the pandemic is still underway) have taken its toll. Van der Plas has smartly exploited the discontent not by taking extreme right-leaning positions like other previous populist movements, but by stressing the needs of ordinary citizens to be heard and by moving back to reasonable compromises on toxic and inextricable issues. The current coalition has now lost its room to maneuver and the discontent has found a new and politically potent channel.
The proof will be in the pudding of course and the new party will now have to take on the responsibilities of co-governing and deal with difficult files, in particular the environmental ones where the government often claims there is ‘no room for alternatives’. The set of complex and interrelated economic and environmental issues are not unique to the Dutch of course. On the day the Dutch were digesting their political upset, French president Macron invoked a constitutional clause in order to ram a hotly debated pensions law through parliament without allowing a vote. A truly exceptional measure and hardly the approach to bridge gaps and find a workable compromise over a divisive social-economic issue.
But it is precisely this tension where governing parties leverage the national necessity or urgency argument to override the public will. In the context of a war that has refocused the Europeans on basic needs such as food and energy while they are being asked to subordinate these for the greater good, it is hard not to see further clashes and eruptions of popular distrust resulting in political earthquakes. What happened in both The Netherlands and France this week is a harbinger of further discontent with possibly violent protests and broad challenges to economic and environmental orthodoxies. Expect it at a theatre near you, soon.
The Dutch farmer protests were characterized by turning the Dutch flag upside down with the colour blue on top instead of the red one. This week the movement made it clear they would undo this and fly the flag in the traditional red-white-blue fashion. The farmers have re-joined the nation and are now asked to demonstrate responsibility and creativity in solving the nations troubles. It will not be an easy one. In order to let democracy thrive you have to make it work again, something the Dutch have started to rediscover this week.
Photos: Caroline van der Plas (top) and a farmer protest sign that says ”Come on kid, we are no longer welcome in this country”. The flag will now be turned back to its traditional red-white-blue.