Deep Dilemma

As the hostages are being released at intervals, the question becomes: what's next?

The joy of seeing them alive, the tears, the emotions of the reunification of family members: it was a spectacle many of us had been waiting to see for seven weeks. And they were no longer anonymous, the names of for instance Emily Hand, Doron Katz and the Elyakim sisters have been all over the news for weeks. Late last week the ‘deal with Hamas’ got going with the release of fifty-eight hostages over a period of three days, we are in day four now and another eleven will be on their way later today. More may be coming later this week in what is essentially a temporary pact with the devil. There is no other way to describe it.

Because amid all the happiness came the darker details: Hamas waiting until the very last minute with presenting the names of those to be released, the separation of a mother and daughter (against the terms of the agreement), not providing sufficient medical care for those hostages needing it, not knowing where all the hostages are, last minute delays and to add insult to injury: forcing the hostages to smile and wave to their captors to create a sense of a fond farewell. And then of course the tragedy of captivity itself and finding out after fifty days that some of your family are no longer around to greet you. No end to the cruelty and there is no way to phrase it better than Haaretz columnist Maya Lecker:

… applauding Hamas gunmen for giving high-fives to their captives on camera, after killing their family members – in some cases in front of their eyes – sets a very low bar for humanity.

Hamas has basically accomplished what it set out to do on October 7th and that is not only to humiliate Israel, but to dictate the terms of the expected subsequent war. Think about it, seventeen released hostages so far were Thai nationals and these were not part of the deal. Their release came directly through interference from Iran. Such power was of course not wielded by Tehran to ensure the release of the Israeli hostages. On the contrary they are being used to keep the ceasefire going long enough for Hamas to regroup and rearm and potentially create a stalemate that would highlight Israel’s impotence. Insult to injury.

There is a multi-faceted dynamic that is facilitating the Hamas roadmap here. On the one hand is of course the public pressure in Israel to bring the hostages back, in particular the women and children, as early as possible. But there is also international pressure on the Israeli cabinet to go along and accept the potential for a longer than desired ceasefire in return for more freed hostages. The Biden administration has gone through extreme efforts to see the release deal work as it not only wants to see saved hostages, but in particular a steady return to calm in the region. Things are as volatile they were on October 7th, maybe even more, and a return to fighting in Gaza could escalate quickly with both Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen ramping up their war efforts. Remember that as of today, the US is actively involved and engaged in the Red Sea. Secretary of State Blinken will be back in the region this week to underline the American desire to ensure that hostilities will not be resumed.

The proposal now being discussed is to release ten hostages every day (there are some hundred and seventy left) for each additional day of a ceasefire. It would also include further releases of convicted Palestinians in Israeli prisons. This is quite the predicament for Nethanyahu as he has indicated Israel is ready to go back to fighting at a moment’s notice to finish the job in Gaza. So the dilemma he now has is to keep going on the hostage release and ceasefire trajectory, or, to make the hard call and risk the lives of the remaining hostages by going full force ahead with destroying Hamas. Given that the latter was the end goal of the war it will be hard to see Israel not pursuing it even with Biden and Blinken pushing hard to end the fighting. The question now is when.

Those that were captured on October 7 and who have not been set free so far remain subject to both their cruel captors and the complicated geo-political games that are being played out over the next few days and weeks. There is no resolution in sight as this conflict drags on with all its human cost.

Photo: Doron Katz and her daughters Raz and Aviv arrive in freedom on Saturday at Hatzerim air force base in Israel. Katz had been visiting her mother Efrat at her kibbutz together with her daughters. Her mother was murdered.