Conflict Acceleration

Iran attacks, terror strikes again but there are rays of hope

While readers were still digging through my earlier update this week entitled ‘Iran is Key’, its leaders in Tehran launched a massive ballistic missile attack against Israel on Tuesday night. It was largely neutralized by Israel with US support and apart from one Palestinian casualty in Jericho no other fatalities were reported. The fact that this one victim is among the very people Iran seeks to protect indicates the stupidity and indiscriminate nature of the attack. What is more they could even have hit one of the holiest Muslim shrines - see photo on the Temple Mount - in their blind zeal to punish Israel. Reckless.

Apparently the Americans got a heads up from Tehran so, much like the barrage in April, that a response could be coordinated and Israel’s response ‘managed’, at least that must have been the working assumption in Iran’s capital. Everything is based on and staged around Biden restraining Nethanyahu.

And surely, the US president yesterday weighed in acknowledging Israel’s right to strike back, but he could not resist to slip the infamous term: ‘proportional’ into his comments. What does it even mean ? Israel is to send the equivalent in ballistic missiles back to Iran in a such a way that they don’t do a lot of damage? Israel is to target a minor military centre somewhere in a far flung Iranian province where damage is likely limited?

Maybe, but I will tell you what it really means, that proportionality. It signals that Israel is not supposed to take out Iran’s oil refineries, its nuclear facilities or any other vital piece of infrastructure. Nothing that could upend the ‘stable’ Middle East as that has been conceived at Foggy Bottom. Yet, after slowly wrestling itself out of the Biden administration’s straitjacket, Israel is in no longer in any mood to keep these things proportional and with good reason. Any minor malfunction in its defence systems could have ensured a direct missile hit on a population centre this week and caused mass casualties in Tel Aviv or Ramat Gan. Worse, it is Iran’s stated intent to destroy Israel one way or the other and the moment it can arm these very missiles with a nuclear load it is game over.

Ever since rolling back Iran’s key client, Hezbollah, and killing much of its leadership the initiative is back with Israel. Not only have its successes so far proven that a more independent course from Washington delivers results, it has also uncovered some scary and alarming scenarios. Underreported in the media for instance was the discovery by the IDF in Lebanon of Hezbollah’s plans to carry out an ‘October 7th-equivalent’ operation in the north with the goal of wiping out and occupying Israel’s northern Galilee. A horror Israel narrowly escaped, but it means once more it can ill afford to take any more chances on Washington’s goodwill to broker stability and a functioning truce. A weakened and possibly divided Iran, yes hardliners and moderates in its leadership will fight each other, is an opportunity it cannot miss.

Again: the Obama-Biden doctrine for Middle East stabilization with Iran as a ‘partner’ have failed spectacularly. Israel has now created a window of opportunity and could destabilize the mullah regime in a way that domestic democratic forces could potentially use to effect regime change in Tehran. And the Sunni nations in the Arab world are taking note and could in their enthusiasm over the steady losses of the once powerful Shia nation lend a helping hand. It may be a long shot and it is early days, yes, but the power dynamics are definitely changing. Iran’s pointless missile attack on Israel has a great chance of blowing up in the face of the mullah regime.

Terror’s Spectre

Only an hour before Israeli authorities directed its population to go into the shelters because of the missile attack, two Palestinian terrorists went on a shooting rampage in Jaffa and murdered seven Israeli citizens, randomly executing them at a light rail station in this Tel Aviv suburb. Gruesome, again. A brave Israeli managed to neutralize the killers. Among the dead was Inbar Segev Vigder whose last act was to protect her nine-month old baby Ari who miraculously survived.

All these victims, all these horrendous deaths, I keep bringing them up in order to illustrate once more how the enablement of the darker forces in the Middle East have destroyed any chance of a settlement, of peace or whatever passes for a cessation of violence. The stated goal, telegraphed from Iran on a very regular basis is the destruction of the Jewish state. Yet, the longer this goes on the more resolved Israelis become and the harder they will hit back. In a targeted way, I might add.

Good Prevails

The dark reign of terror is hardly new, we have seen it for decades and more recently with ISIS who tried to wipe out the Yezidis in Iraq, murdering the men and enslaving and raping the women. This week one of these women, named Fawzia, who was captured at age eleven in 2014 was found, thanks to the relentless efforts of Steve Maman a Canadian Jewish businessman and liberated by Israelis in, yes, Gaza where she was kept as an indentured servant. Here is the moment she walks free:

A ray of light in the dark and a sign that humanity in the end does have a chance even amid the most depraved and relentless violence one can conceive.

A New Beginning?

Now, all of this is coming together in the very week that Jews globally celebrate a new year and leave behind one of the bloodiest in their entire history. For those that observe, but maybe also for everyone really: “Shanah tovah u’metuka”. Have a good and sweet year.

Again, I thank everyone for reading, commenting and following and I am hearing the calls for podcasts and videos on this newsletter. It is doable, the tools are here. Stay tuned. My plan is to make it a richer and better newsletter. More is on the way.