Cold Feet? Or Not?

Reports on Iran's plans diverge while the hostage clock is running out

It has been almost two weeks since the Haniyeh assassination in Tehran and while the world is still bracing for Iran to attack Israel and some sort of conclusion to the hostage negotiations, we have witnessed how in each case some unexpected scenarios have started to emerge.

Firstly, Iran while being highly motivated to attack Israel, it has somehow stepped back from the ledge having assessed the risks. While power is fairly centralized there is a new president, we have the IRGC and the supreme leadership who all have their views and specific interests. The core reason for the slower response appears to be around the fact that being dragged into a direct war would detract from and actually endanger Iran’s real long-term goal: to become a nuclear power. It would from Tehran’s perspective be far wiser to focus on that objective rather than risk Israel and the US taking the opportunity to once and for all end its nuclear dreams. As a result the theory that it would thus outsource a response to Hezbollah got traction, but that would mean that the Lebanon-based affiliate would also risk the lethal wrath of Israel. And that would also ensure that parts of Lebanon will be obliterated in an ensuing war.

As the days moved on more evidence surfaced that the US - and yesterday Europe - have been applying extreme pressure on Iran to not do anything dramatic. And that got some echo from Iran’s partners in Russia with Putin pointing out that any Iranian response should not target civilians in Israel. And that’s not necessarily reflecting Putin’s human side to the extent he has one, but a far more strategic move. Russia is now experiencing a lethal Ukrainian counterattack on its own soil and will need Iranian resources to keep its military sufficiently armed.

So as of this weekend there were lots of reasons to think that Iran would step back from the brink. That was until late yesterday when reliable sources revealed that a direct attack by Iran this week, by Thursday, is on the cards.

A similar trajectory applies to the hostage situation. The news reports were indicating that the pressure on both Israel and Hamas to conclude a deal became so strong that things were finally moving. Hamas is now not only cornered militarily in Gaza, but also feeling the pinch of having no direct access to resupplies through Egypt that they at one point could rely on. Nethanyahu for his part has to balance US pressure to conclude the negotiations against the hardline ministers in his coalition who long ago counted the hostages as a sunk cost and are keen to fight on to the very end.

Yet, again late yesterday, news filtered out that Hamas would not be attending the scheduled negotiation for this Thursday in Cairo Egypt. What happened? Did Hamas evaluate the news of an imminent Iranian attack and concluded there was no point, or are they going to drag this on for as long as possible knowing the hostages are their very last and only remaining asset? Or did Israel add last minute demands that made further talks unfeasible? Whatever it was, with 311 days in captivity the situation is beyond desperate, for all involved.

‘They Don’t Show Up’

And support rallies for the hostages echo not only this extreme pain but also the cross generational hurt that so many have felt since October 7th. Yesterday in Vancouver a small and committed crowd got together again, and I was standing next to a Dutch Holocaust survivor who had lost her older brother, sister and parents during the war. In a mixture of grief and shock she told me how it all felt to be here at this juncture in the year 2024: ‘they’re at it again’. It was hard not to feel the pain and bewilderment of someone in her eighties who thought she would never ever have to see the deliberate attempts to destroy Jews again. Imagine what some casual Sunday shoppers added by hurling vile epithets at our group. And while she shared her thoughts a much younger Jewish woman on stage expressed her disappointment as an active but increasingly isolated member of the local LGBT community. Her years as an activist failed to generate the sort of support she expected from her fellow queers when she asked them to come to her events, supporting the hostages: ‘they don’t show up’.

The rally was a microcosm of the ever deepening crisis where time for the captured men, women and children is now definitely running out. At the same time the world looks away and is all too keen to forget how the dark past is played out again right in front of our eyes.

A decisive week is likely to be upon us.

Photos: Iran’s new president Masoud Pezeshkian and the south side of Vancouver’s Art Gallery on Robson Street in Vancouver yesterday, August 11, 2024.