Change in Canada

A frustrated and angry electorate issues its first warning

While the UK is bracing itself for the electoral wipe out that will bring Labour back in power next week and the US gears up for its first Biden-Trump debate tonight, Canada also got a taste of impending political shifts. Last Monday night a by-election took place in the safe Liberal downtown riding of Toronto-St. Paul's which had become vacant recently. Although such an election will not swing the balance of power, it is just one seat after all, the outcome is seen as an important indicator in particular if opposition parties manage to upstage the colour of the riding. And that is exactly what happened in the heart of Toronto. Canada’s Conservatives unseated the Liberal candidate in a riding that had been solidly Liberal red for decades. It is now conservative blue and that is saying something about where Canada is heading. This is likely the beginning of the end phase of Justin Trudeau’s reign over the cold north. The question is then, what exactly happened?

It is true that the often cited reasons of inflation, housing costs and immigration have been chipping away at Trudeau’s support. But that is too easy an explanation and it would certainly not explain the dramatic collapse of the Liberal vote in Toronto. No, the deep unpopularity of Trudeau’s government is one that is rooted in the incredibly hard work that his government has done in changing the social and economic fabric of Canada while concentrating power in the prime minister’s office. Let’s do a quick recap.

The obvious point is the year-on-year increase in public debt which Trudeau kicked off the day he got into office in 2015 and well before the pandemic necessitated this. As a result every single year federal budgets were not balanced and there never was a plan to do so. It has been an endless money orgy that banks on a rapidly growing economy so that the debt/GDP ratio stays within bounds, but that could be wishful thinking. In particular because Trudeau’s economic policies have neither stimulated growth, nor productivity, it has only built an expansive state apparatus and an annual interest cost that is about to outstrip what the federal government spends on healthcare. Housing may be an issue for Canada’s young today, the federal burden of debt will deeply impact their future well-being. A recent report noted how a record number of Canadians is moving south to the US to find better economic prospects.

But there is lots more that has marred the Trudeau reign. It is not headline news but the irrational fear of ‘online hate’ has prompted this government to draft ever more legislation that restricts and polices internet usage. Not all of them have been passed as of yet, but the spat Canada has had with Facebook over sharing news links is an example of how Trudeau’s actions impede the free flow of information. At the same time the government has been funding local journalism, a move that has been criticized by many as not really supporting the ‘free word’ but rather binding it to the wishes to those that control the public purse. Either team Trudeau does not understand media and the internet, or it understands it all too well. The fear is that it is the latter.

And yes, the heavy handed crackdown during the Trucker Convoy protests where Trudeau and his finance minister Chrystia Freeland closed protestors’ bank accounts using the Emergencies Act raised serious questions about civil liberties in Canada. It was an egregious move to quell dissent using a law meant for war or violent insurrections and its use has since been ruled unconstitutional by a federal court in Canada. This was a very dark episode in the country’s political history, alienating both the left and the right.

Trudeau billed himself as a ‘feminist’ yet has he has managed to get rid of the most gifted women in his cabinet and caucus. The dismissal of justice minister Jody Wilson-Raybould early on was a warning to those who were too principled: toe the party line or you’re out. Treasury minister Jane Philpott followed quickly as did member of parliament Celina Caesar-Chavannes and these were not exactly pleasant exits. While the entire Canadian nation could watch the sordid details, they did not seem to care enough and still gave Trudeau the opportunity in the 2019 and 2021 elections to carry on governing, albeit with a minority.

The new crop of ministers Trudeau has assembled over time were selected less on quality and expertise and more on loyalty. Finance minister and former Financial Times journalist Freeland who was once hailed as a talent and future prime minister is now labelled as someone who only carries Trudeau’s bag. Her intervention in the by-election campaign was not helpful and she is unlikely to have a meaningful political future. Foreign minister Melanie Joly, another Trudeau loyalist, has turned out to be an equally uninspiring choice and she can take credit for having presided over Canada’s steadily diminishing role in world affairs. Canada is no longer playing a major role as mediator or diplomatic influencer during a time of major international upheaval and its ever smaller defence budget make it a power of limited importance. No one cares anymore what Canada thinks, it’s irrelevant.

And that is all happening when international conflicts have spilled onto Canada’s streets, notably the pro-Hamas cult which has now morphed into a full scale assault on Canada’s Jewish community. The current government has done too little, too late to stem this and consequently alienated its Jewish support. When asked about anti-Semitism the Trudeau team would nod and then go on to explain to journalists the dangers of Islamophobia. Yes, that happened. A mixture of political calculation and ingrained political correctness rather than a compassionate and informed approach to the issue at hand not only defines how they have handled the Israel-Hamas file, but almost every single item that has crossed Trudeau’s desk.

And that brings us back to the Toronto-St. Paul election where the riding’s sizeable Jewish population no doubt played a key role in the Liberal defeat. But even without them the writing had been on the wall for Trudeau, in Toronto and beyond. Life has all of a sudden become very uneasy for the other Liberal members of parliament who often hold marginal seats and they are getting concerned over their ability to hang on come next election. They have started the process of wondering who is responsible for their rapidly changing political fortunes, although they should of course ask themselves that very question first. But in plain language this means that Liberals are gearing up for a chapter of regicide and a search for a successor to Trudeau. But even with a new leader, the prospects for the Liberal Party of Canada are grim. And that is saying something about its record.

Canadians are eager for a general election, scheduled for next year. The opposition Conservatives are doing very well in the polls and are campaigning against Trudeau’s carbon tax and capital gains tax reforms but those should probably be the least of Canadian worries right now. Almost ten years of Trudeau has done real damage to Canada’s public finances, its international standing and above all its civil liberties. The country’s social and economic fabric is under real pressure. Voters in Toronto this week indicated that it is time for a change and want to regain the Canada that once existed as a free and model society with moderation as its hallmark. It may be coming soon, stay tuned.