Broad Strokes

America is positioning itself for the new global disorder - a few thoughts

Rather than diving into the minutiae of the negotiations over Ukraine or the endlessly moving pieces in the Middle East, I thought it might be useful to simplify a few things. So here are a few broad outlines of what might be the driving forces of Trump’s moves on the global stage since he came into the White House some four week ago.

Europe is Europe - the push to force NATO/Europe to step up for its own defence is not only a matter of the purse. It also signals an increasing isolationist sentiment that is forcing America to step away from a continent that is bound to be engaged in deep turmoil in the years ahead. There is no longer an appetite for costly and often deadly long-term military engagements overseas on both a financial and philosophical level.

The Russian war on Ukraine is but an opening salvo of more armed conflict and turbulence in particular in Eastern Europe. At the same time there is this massive unregulated immigration into Europe, bringing in unscreened masses that do not easily integrate and who work as a destabilizing factor. That of course filters up to the political level where division rules over how to handle immigration. The continent’s less than unified political leadership is yet to tackle these threats which could be considered as existential. All of this does not mean that Europe is a powder keg just yet, but the ‘get out while you can’ is not an entirely off the wall piece of advice. And America is out.

Trump is quick in trying to cook a deal for Ukraine because America (1) does not need the distraction and realizes instant cost savings, (2) it is setting up the stage for the Europeans to handle all of it: it is your problem, not ours, and in doing so it (3) forges a working relationship with Putin as a counterweight to China’s ever deeper relations with Russia. That brings us to the next point.

Defend North America - with the advent of an assertive China - which has already deeply infiltrated Canada and the US - and Russia, there is a strategic need to shore up North America’s defences and secure its access to natural resources before others get their hands on them. The Panama Canal, Greenland and Canada are the essential pieces here. I have said it here before, this is not Trump spitballing his way to a new empire, but the steady execution of a plan to secure a continent in a time when the world will be adrift, see Europe above. North America is slated to be a fort with walls, defending itself against any possible outside threat.

For Canada to interpret this as a hostile move and to start to look for partners outside North America (and for instance stop buying American products) is a shortsighted move. You can’t move Canada and you can ‘t directly change the behaviour of the 21st century’s new aggressors, one of whom, China, has already deeply inserted itself in your country. Buckle up and partner with your closest ally and cut a deal with them on trade, security and whatever else you can think of. Develop a long term strategy for a North American alliance, quite possibly with Mexico as a team mate covering the southern front. Any other move is suicide, Canadians please beware. Play your cards well while you still have them.

Manage the Middle East - here too the US after the debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan needs a different direction, while ensuring a number of strategic objectives. Security by neutralizing radical Islamist elements and preventing a nuclear Iran, supporting its natural ally Israel while having access to the vast economic opportunity that the continent provides. The Saudis are key here and that is why a lasting deal in Gaza and eventually in Lebanon requires an extension of the Abraham Accords. Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and possibly Syria will be the areas where military support and advice will help stabilize the area and keep other global players and adversaries, China and Russia, out.

Partner where Possible - Trump’s tariff threat on India yielded results when India’s prime minister Modi promised to buy more US oil and gas while he paid a visit to Washington last week. The sub-continent is now home to some 1.5 billion people and an economic powerhouse in its own rights, strategically located. Keeping India onside and again seeing to it that it remains on largely friendly terms with the US is another piece in this transactional strategy of a new and dis-connected world. Similar deals with other non-aligned partners, think Brazil and Indonesia (historically always a friend of America) could be in the works.

So yes, Americans are buckling up for not so much a World War or an Empire, but rather a new world order where managed conflicts are the order of the day. It is, given that we are dealing with Trump, driven by fast transactions often with huge monetary incentives, but underneath all these pieces is a defensive strategy for an increasingly fractured and de-globalized world. And the latter came into being long before Trump. Let’s see how this wake up call is digested in capitals around the world.

Image: to illustrate how the US and Europe are geographically positioned, and how Canada and Greenland are sandwiched in between Russia and the US. The latter becomes incredibly relevant as ice caps start to melt.