Back in Gaza
As the landscape shifts, so do the parameters of war. The hostages suffer, again.
So let’s be clear about it. The multiple phased hostage-ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas that saw the light in Joe Biden’s sunset days got stuck after completion of phase one. The negotiations for the second phase, which would secure a full hostage release and an end of the war did no go anywhere as expected. There was no way Israel was going accede to an end of the war that would leave Hamas in place in Gaza, nor was there a likelihood that the latter would release all the hostages and give up its last bit of leverage and surrender. It was an impossible negotiation and the pressure and language from Trump, however well intended, did not move the dial. So Israel resorted back to military pressure and started to attack key Hamas targets in Gaza over the past two nights. Now, let’s focus on the key dynamics at play here and assess what may be next.
What Changed? First and foremost the completion of phase one opened the door for the second phase and that was always expected to be a tough one. But more notably, the main characters changed. The US got a new president and a set of negotiators (Wittkof, Boehler), on the Israeli side a new military chief (Zamir) took his seat while Nethanyahu (who had already dismissed Yoav Gallant as defence minister) over the past week sought to sideline and fire his domestic security chief, Ronen Bar. Also, and as evidenced by all the footage of the hostage releases, Hamas portrayed a sense of recovery and appeared ready to take on the fight again. All of this combined to the Israeli military response: intense pressure to change the dynamics of the conflict. As a side note: most of the key Israeli leaders in place and responsible for October 7th are gone now, except for one. You know who.
Hostage Strategy - The core debate about releasing the hostages through negotiations or through military pressure has been raging ever since the start of the war. It has split Israeli society, although a large majority of some 70% favoured getting the hostages released ahead of resuming hostilities to destroy Hamas. The government’s argument that negotiations were no longer able to produce hostage releases is being pushed now to justify the renewed attacks on Gaza. Former hostages however have come out to say that military pressure is likely to achieve the exact opposite of securing hostage releases. It is quite possible that Israel may consequently end up with more dead hostages.
The Nethanyahu Play - A more critical tune is that Nethanyahu is prolonging the war for his own political benefits. Not everyone will know this, but under Israeli law his government has to pass a budget by March 31, otherwise his coalition will be dissolved. He needs all the help he can get and that includes ensuring the hard right is fully supportive and aligned with Nethanyahu. They are principally opposed to negotiations and favour a continued war and so the controversial Ben Gvrir (who previously resigned from the coalition) as a coalition partner has returned into the fold.
As mentioned, the domestic security chief Ronen Bar is being pushed out the door. Nethanyahu is taking a page from Trump’s book by firing all those who do not toe the Bibi line, but there is also increasing evidence that Bar has access to ever more compromising evidence of Nethanyahu’s office collusion with the Qatari government. In which a lot of money is involved, of course. It was time for the prime minister to reassert control and all of these moves will, for the time being, solidify Nethanyahu’s hold on power while neutralizing most of his closest critics.
Firing Bar however has fired up the critics all across Israel and a massive protest is underway in Jerusalem as you read this. Even many right-wingers and former military leaders are joining in the rallies today, many are no longer able to look away at the constitutional mess that has emerged domestically while the country is still in a war on multiple fronts.
The Bigger Play - The bigger question is why the US, which under Trump is working very hard for a Middle East peace with Saudi Arabia as key partner, would have given the nod to Israel attacking Hamas again. And if their leverage over for instance Qatar has maxed out.
Now, consider the context, on the night of the first attack on Monday the US was actively engaging - actually pounding - the Houthis in Yemen while escalating pressure on Iran (rumours of a sunk Iranian navy vessel abounded on social media). So Israel reopening its attacks on Gaza could be a piece of a broader strategy to realign the Middle East and force a reality where Iran and partners are now definitively pushed back with a level of lethal force not used during the Biden days. The Saudis may have acquiesced, although of course not publicly where a different picture emerges. All of this stuff of course gets done through backchannels.
Note that a much larger argument that can be heard now is that Trump is deliberately dumping Ukraine in order to get Russia to pull back from Iran in return, so a US-led peace deal can be put into place. A plan with the Saudis as the key partner as it needs US weapons and security as well as Israeli technology to power its economy for a post-oil future. Many shifting pieces in this puzzle, but they are all interconnected.
So?
None of these global considerations will bring any comfort to the deep concerns over the lives of the remaining hostages, the ways in which domestic Israeli unity is being ripped apart and of course the civilian casualties in Gaza. There are rumours that the talks between Hamas and Israel are not off the table and ongoing and that some sort of deal can be salvaged from the rubble. That is doubtful at this point in time, but the larger machinations between the US and Saudi Arabia - with Egypt and Qatar in the mix- may force Nethanyahu’s hand to accept some sort of deal soon. Stay tuned.
Photos: the new IDF Chief, Eyal Zamir with troops in Southern Gaza yesterday, March 18, 2025 (photo: IDF).
On Tuesday night Yarden Bibas whose wife and children were murdered in Gaza and who himself was a hostage there at a rally in Tel Aviv on Tuesday night to protest the resumption of military activity in Gaza. Note that many former hostages have told media how soul crushing the experience was to have the hope to be released during a previous ceasefire, only to hear the resumption of war knowing that there would be no freedom. Bibas and others have made it clear that there can be no healing, for them or for the nation, as long as there are hostages in Gaza.
