A Year After Majdal Shams

The Druze are in the crosshairs again. Israel steps up while waiting for a hostage deal.

This month it is a year ago that the world started to learn more about the Druze community following the dreadful Hezbollah attack on the village of Majdal Shams in Northern Israel. It killed twelve children that were playing soccer. It proved to be a game changer in the war on Israel’s northern border as it accelerated the decimation of Hezbollah a number of weeks later that started with the now legendary ‘pager’ attack. With it the Druze disappeared into anonymity again, a position they prefer as an ethno-religious minority of barely a million in a region where such minority positions are not exactly desirable. The Druze have managed to survive over the centuries and prospered, in particular in Israel where they are a respected component of society and serve in the IDF.

As we learned yesterday the Druze contingent in the city of Suwayda in Southern Syria was subjected to a massive assault by militia related to the new regime of Abu Mohammad al-Jolani (real name al-Sharaa). The visuals were disturbing: random executions, mass murder in a hospital, forced shaving of beards and moustaches, many wounded and of course reports of rape. The internet was flooded with photos and video of how Sheikh Marhaj Shaheen was humiliated, an ordeal he is reported to not have survived. Hundreds of Druze were killed and rumours started to circulate that 90,000 were fleeing the area, creating another refugee wave.

It did not take long for Israel to get involved and it targeted a number of Syrian military installations, most notably the general headquarters in Damascus itself. Apparently some 700 Syrian troops were killed in this attack and together with US pressure this has prompted al-Jolani to quickly accede to a ceasefire and order his troops out of the Suwayda area. Last night Israeli helicopters touched down in the Druze area to provide the necessary humanitarian aid.

A few things to mention here. All of this comes at an ominous time as the US is working hard to prop up Syria’s new rulers - as are the Europeans - while trying and pushing Syria into agreeing to a peace arrangement with Israel. Syria joining the Abraham Accords is on the table as an ideal outcome. You could argue that the attack on the Druze may signal that Syria, knowing full well that Israel would respond with force, is not all that ready for a definitive settlement with Israel. It may also indicate that al-Jolani may not be as firm in control of his troops as many in western media would have us believe. There are still many factions in his Islamist coalition that have a relatively free reign in Syria’s different regions.

From Israel’s perspective it was indeed a logical and morally justifiable step to defend one of the larger the Druze communities outside its territory. Bear this in mind when you are confronted in western media with the usual interpretations of Israel being the aggressor. That said, it is not entirely crazy to think that it presented an opportunity for Israel to weaken Syria’s new regime. A temporary ceasefire with an internally divided Syria may well be preferable for now as opposed to working out a complicated treaty - consider having to make concessions on the Golan heights - with a stronger al-Jolani and unified Syria. Cynical voices have argued that Nethanyahu needed another warfront in order to deflect from his domestic challenges this week, but this is a far less persuasive argument.

Hostages

It brings us however to the ongoing ceasefire and hostage negotiations which looked promising last week, but now appear to have hit a few roadblocks once more. The excitement during Nethanyahu’s visit to Washington last week petered out quickly and was given a further dark layer when the New York Times published its findings on how Israel’s PM has dragged out hostage negotiations during the war for political purposes. With the ongoing troubles in his coalition, which this week took another turn with two religious parties announcing their exit, the question arose if Nethanyahu again was stalling in order to placate his coalition partners and survive politically.

One indication was that notably Israel’s insistence to hold on to the ‘Morag corridor’, a position not acceptable to Hamas, was used to stall negotiations. From the other side, it was reported that Hamas demand to discontinue the current US-Israeli Gaza Humanitarian Foundation's (GHF) providing aid (and hand the process back to UN affiliated groups) is unacceptable to Israel. Maintaining the GHF’s position here is key to sever Hamas from maintaining control of the population and curtailing its ability to generate cash.

Whatever the holdup is, the core question is why US pressure and in particular Trump’s insistence on getting a deal is not yielding any results. It has been argued that Trump’s tariff threat could be purposed to push Nethanyahu along while the president himself sat down last night with Qatar’s PM, the key mediator. And Qatar in turn, it should be noted, is closely affiliated with Syria’s al-Jolani. Multiple pieces are moving but no material updates on the hostage front. Stay tuned.

Photo: Syrian troops raiding the town of Suwayda. The video depicts the attack on Syrian Defence force facilities in Damascus.