A Painful Juncture

Hamas scores political points, prolonging both the conflict and human suffering

The war in Gaza is continuing full force with Israel taking on Hamas strongholds while simultaneously preparing the next steps, including the final and decisive attack on Rafah. The world is now also treated to a steady stream of stories of starvation and medical emergencies among Gaza’s civilian population. This in turn has sent the international pressure on Israel to unprecedented highs. We need to walk through all of these components to grasp what is really going on and where it might take things. Here we go:

Humanitarian Aid - there can be no doubt that the war has had a devastating impact on Gaza which is why there now is an unending stream of goods and supplies that flow into the strip to help. These numbers are published by the Israeli government:

These reports belie the dubious claim that Israel is deliberately starving Gazans. It is also worth noting that in return for these deliveries none of the remaining 134 hostages have come out of Gaza. The support effort has been a one-way trajectory. Now feel free to question Israel’s reporting here, but there is a very reasonable assumption here that these are all verifiable numbers as they are monitored and tracked by both international aid and news organizations once they pass the various border checkpoints. And note that these exclude the aid that is now also coming in by both sea and air.

The key issue however has been the distribution of aid inside Gaza itself and there is ample evidence that Hamas controls this process, mostly at gunpoint. Only last week - and this was a much underreported news item - an important clan leader in Gaza was executed by Hamas for precisely this: working with Israel to distribute the aid. The Dogmush clan is far from pro-Israel, but they are one of the older families that have an influential role in the territory and in doing so at times have run into conflict with the political and military leadership in charge: Hamas.

Yet the starvation stories dominate the Western press and without much effort the blame is squarely laid at Israel’s feet. One wonders why journalists, commentators and politicians do not spend the considerable energy they are using to draft the anti-Israel narrative to explain how Hamas is deliberately obstructing the distribution of the necessary aid supplies. It is worth recalling once more that, and this article frames it nicely:

“ Hamas is perhaps the first regime in recorded history to fight a war designed to maximize casualties among their own population”

And why? Because it is a strategy that translates to maximum attention in Western capitals where in turn it helps dial up a new war narrative and increases worldwide pressure on the enemy, which is Israel.

That Pressure - and as a result we are now witnessing the political unease and the resulting over-reaction. To start, Democratic senator and majority leader Chuck Schumer last week called out for Bibi Nethanyahu to be replaced, an unprecedented incursion into Israel’s domestic polices and a breach of every conceivable diplomatic custom. Canada this week piled on with a motion in parliament that seeks to map out a journey to a two-state solution, and more crucially a stop to weapons exports to Israel. The initiators of that move, the left leaning NDP party, actually wore keffiyehs during the parliamentary deliberations making it clear where their loyalties are. The Europeans have been at it as well with EU foreign policy chief Joseph Borrell throwing around the ‘deliberate starvation’ canard and even Israel-friendly Dutch PM Rutte began telegraphing a much tougher stance in the conflict yesterday.

The Winner - the issue at stake now is that the window that most Western countries (with tacit consent from Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other Arab nations) gave Israel to clean Hamas out of Gaza is beginning to expire. The significant political capital that Biden, Trudeau, Sunak and many others have expended for this position is for various political reasons beginning to run out. Notably Joe Biden is feeling the pressure to roll back things. With it come ultimatums for Israel to wrap up operations and get back to the table to negotiate a ceasefire and start deliberating on what everyone knows will be a long and arduous route to a settled peace. However the more this dynamic is playing itself out, the more Hamas feels strengthened and is ever more unlikely to collaborate on for instance hostages and will happily extend the fight. This will lead to ever more civilian suffering and casualties, more international pressure on Israel to back off and thus exactly what Hamas is striving for: tilting the power balance and possibly survive the war intact.

The view from Israel and the Arab World - The Israeli government has failed to deliver on destroying Hamas within the timeframe it was given and is consequently beginning to lose Western support. Domestically the Nethanyahu coalition is under ever more pressure - protests galore - but foreign observers should be careful to note that a new and more centrist Israeli cabinet would pursue the same war goals in Gaza. Hamas with its Iran-supported totalitarian, nihilistic and bloodstained record simply cannot from Israel’s perspective survive this conflict, a view shared by the Sunni block, notably the Saudis and Egyptians. Any arrangement that gives this group a reprieve will prolong the conflict and potentially lead to far more human suffering on both sides.

Solutions anyone? - so while steering Israel away from a possible win, the recent political and diplomatic moves are giving Hamas the very lifeline that they shouldn’t really have. An ever more restrained and frustrated Israel will have no way out of this conflict which - let’s not forget - still has the risk of escalating on its northern border where Hezbollah will make a material move at some point. The timely destruction of Hamas however could initiate a real Gaza rebuild and recovery effort and allow Israel to refocus its military.

You will not read it often, but only an unconditional surrender by Hamas will solve this conflict. There are Arab states who could possibly enable a retreat of what is left of the group and ensure that an international coalition in collaboration with Israel and moderate Palestinians take over Gaza. This is the most reasonable and most human reprieve one can think of right now although it will not be an easy one. It does however run counter to both of Hamas’ short and long term plans for the region.

Expect more aid, yes, and more political drama in the West, but also an increasingly violent and hopeless journey for Gaza as a direct result.

Images: photo of aid trucks on top from the US Embassy in Israel and numbers from COGAT.