A New World

Trump transforms, Nethanyahu procrastinates and MBS cheers

A man in a hurry. That is what we are seeing. And for all the questions that were raised about Ukraine and Israel being thrown under the bus, the answer was delivered in his usual style. It even started with Lee Greenwood’s ‘God Bless the USA’, right in the heart of Saudi Arabia. Only this time it was a tad more serious and even contained references to the almighty. And it deserved a bit of gravity, as yesterday’s speech buried one of the core foundations of US foreign policy: tying economic and military aid to democratic values. Trump’s speech ended the age of interventionism and suggested a new way of how different countries, whatever the nature of their regimes, can prosper together, in peace.

Host Mohammed bin Salman (‘MBS’) applauded and smiled as he took in the endless compliments of Donald Trump on a day multiple billion dollar deals were closed between the two countries. Gone now are the days that will tie these things to human rights and political reform, the short term benefits are now outweighing the longer term considerations, or, not unimportantly the moral values that America always tried to champion in some sort of way. The outcome is clear: Saudi Arabia is the new regional power in the Middle East with the seal of approval of the American president.

Indeed it is not a journey of war and conflict, it is the pattern of trying to make peace that is evident. Iran is to be boxed into a nuclear deal without going to war, Syria saw sanctions against it lifted, and the Gaza War is increasingly the domain of team Trump. In the latter case they are even talking directly to Hamas in breach of US policy to not directly engage with an organization that is designated as a terrorist one. But do note that Trump is often far from getting what he sets out to achieve, bombastic policy announcements get whittled down and in the end only yield marginal gains. Tariffs, Gaza, Ukraine, it is hard to discover any big Trump wins among all the noise.It is more incremental, but there is a clear direction.

One can argue that the sorer point in all of this is that Trump is handing out the goodies without some of the expected and potentially necessary pre-conditions. Like for instance forcing the Saudis and Syria to formally recognize Israel and Syria and joining the Abraham Accords. And that in turn left not only Nethanyahu, but the entire global pro-Israel crowd in a state of utter confusion this week after months of cheering Trump.

Gone is the urgency to attack Iran, a sort of deal is now guiding relationships with the Houthis and the hostages are now exclusively the domain of Witkoff and his ‘framework’. And that was clear on Monday, which was a day of tremendous joy, as Edan Alexander arrived home back into Israel after 584 days of gruelling imprisonment by Hamas. Israel was left in the dark in all of this and it further angered many government-supporting Israelis how the released hostage thanked Trump rather than Nethanyahu. Yes, the rifts run that deep in Israel at the moment.

Nethanyahu’s core political strategy - one that he acquired in his three terms as prime minister spanning seventeen years - is to delay, to procrastinate. Time has been Bibi’s best friend in domestic politics where he just delayed and frustrated things until another election came along. In wars too and in particular in committing to progressing the hostage negotiations, kicking the can down the road worked best for him, no matter the collateral damage. And it is in that exact dynamic that the two seemingly good friends diverged: Trump needs results and fast. The Saudi trip could no longer be pushed back and at a month shy of his seventy-ninth birthday, Donald is racing against the biological clock to build his legacy. The show continues today in Qatar and let’s see what happens with that gifted 747, an incredibly bad idea.

So?

To give credit to Trump, there is a direction and a theme although the urge for quick results and short term gains tend to often overshadow this. Who is going to appear at the next meeting, the businessman or the statesman? How do the various actions line up against one another and is there any cohesion while dealing simultaneously with Syria, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Qatar? Or are we just stumbling into an entirely new geopolitical set up where a new world disorder shapes itself in the divergent processes unleashed by Trump?

Israel is not being abandoned, nor will Ukraine. But both these countries, and many others, will have to work with a global American power that is flying increasingly solo, guided by policies and dollars that may change on a whim.

And Finally

In all this analysis it is hard at times but so necessary to separate the human pain, joy and relief from the political machinations that have driven this cruel and painfully long process. That is why I keep sharing hostage stories and to see Edan Alexander reunite with his mother Yael - who was a relentless campaigner for his freedom - is something to savour, enjoy while shedding a tear.