A Historic Week

Biden drops, Putin wins, Trump doubles down, Nethanyahu moves

It is impossible to foretell what is going to happen of course, but it is safe to say that the first week of February brought us an acceleration in three areas that will likely have a deep impact on the course of world history. Consider this:

Joe Biden – it wasn’t too hard to see, even a child would have noticed, but the sitting US president‘s aging process is becoming painful to watch. The time to explain it away and hope that we are dealing with momentary lapses or that he will somehow get better are behind us. The world is watching a confused man who is regressing, some have pointed to signs of dementia. Following a few more gaffes and confusing media appearances the concerns over Biden’s aging have now gone mainstream. It is no longer the president’s opponents who are pointing this out, most media are weighing in and Democrats like Hillary Clinton called it a ‘legitimate issue’. The best argument I have seen came from Andrew Sullivan who on Friday pointed out that the Democrats twice made the wrong bets on ignoring reasonable retirement moments: those of Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Hillary Clinton. In both cases the consequences were quite dramatic: a rebalanced Supreme Court and a Trump presidency. The latter is a near certainty again if Biden thinks he can continue to defy the odds of nature. The sharpest criticism here is for his wife Jill: she at the very least must see what is going on and pull her husband out of the limelight into a comfortable and well-deserved retirement. Political considerations however may nix such an early exit plan. Yet anything can happen between now and the moment the Democrats pick their candidate at their convention later in August in Chicago.

The Interview – Of course all eyes were on  Tucker Carlson’s stunt in the Kremlin, a long interview with Russia’s president. He had to wait for two hours for Vlad to show up, not a surprise considering that it was Putin who was really in charge of the entire performance. You can probably fill a book with all the comments, thoughts and analyses assessing both men and their motivations, but let’s keep it brief here: Putin was playing two important audiences.

Firstly, addressing middle America and other western audiences to further activate their dwindling support for the war in Ukraine at a time when Congress is struggling with it and it becoming an important issue in the US election campaign. And surely, one presidential candidate wasted no time to wade into it and he dialled in another monumental and tragic campaign speech: deliberately undermining NATO and even suggesting that if that organization’s members would not pay up, he would welcome a Russian attack on them. Yes he said that. Trump was not wrong pointing to Europe’s poor preparations to face an ever deepening conflict on the continent, but the tone and sentiment played right into Putin’s playbook.

The other group tuned into the interview was of course the Putin base at home. As dissident Mikhail Khodorkovsky points out, Russians too needed to see how their president is getting important podium time in front of Western audiences. So by playing both groups, it seems Putin pulled off a media stunt that shows how he is cleverly influencing the agenda that could lead to a settlement in Ukraine. One of course that would be favourable to Russia.

And whatever the critics say about Carlson: he did push Putin on the incarceration of Evan Gershkovich and urged the release of the Wall Street Journal reporter.  

Gaza – Biden’s efforts for a ceasefire and a potential recognition for a Palestinian State is now putting real pressure on Israel to get results on the ground, and fast. This means cleaning what remains of Hamas out of the Rafah area in the western part of Gaza, also the place where most if not all of the hostages are expected to be held. And yes, late yesterday there was some good news on this, finally: 60-year-old Fernando Simon Marman and 70-year-old Louis Har were liberated by the IDF in a daring operation. Both freed men are in good condition. A major morale booster for all of Israel.

Over the weekend there was a lot of diplomatic traffic (a Biden-Nethanyahu call no less) over the situation in Rafah where about one million people have sought refuge. Israel has made it clear it is doing everything it can to move these refugees safely out of the area so that war efforts can continue. Egypt is ramping up its pressure on both Israel and America as it does not want to open its borders to accommodate these very people on their territory. Yet at the same time the Egyptians would be more than happy if Israel does the dirty work for them: almost all moderate Arab states want to see Hamas destroyed, they’re just not saying it publicly.

Israel has no margin at this point and if we have to believe Nethanyahu it will make a move and launch its final attack in order to fulfill the two core objectives of the war: remove Hamas and get the hostages out. The end game is on its way.     

History in the Making

So in one week we are witnessing a massive charm offensive by a man who is re-engineering the war in Ukraine, as well as the first signs that we may not see Joe Biden run for re-election. All of this while the war in Gaza is entering a decisive stage and Biden’s opponent is signalling the end of Pax Americana which has served us so well for some eighty years. You may be right in asking what will be coming at us this week.