Precision and Perfection

Israel's attack was successful, but above all it was smart and strategic

So by now you will all have heard that early in the weekend Israel, with some 100 fighter jets and US approval, attacked multiple military sites and objects in Iran. The debate that ensued over the past 48 hours centred around what Israel had actually accomplished. On the one hand there was a sense of disappointment in that they did not neutralize key targets like Iran’s nuclear weapons sites or IRGC facilities, on the other side there were arguments that Israel managed to seriously damage Iran’s air defence systems which could set the stage for a subsequent even more decisive Israeli attack. The latter take is far more persuasive, but even more important is that Iran was shown once more how precise and devastating Israel can be when it executes a targeted attack. The technical precision, the swiftness while bridging some 1,100 miles stand in stark contrast to Iran indiscriminately lobbing missiles and drones into Israel. As one Iranian friend of mine put it, “you have no idea how incompetent Iran’s armed forces are”.

The damage is therefore not only measured in strict military terms, but also in psychological terms and a clear message was delivered: “when we come back it will be easier for us to hit you even harder”. Tehran’s rulers were humiliated. And it cleverly stayed within, whatever one might think of them, the boundaries that the Biden administration had laid out while avoiding civilian casualties or collateral damage. Perfect and precise.

All signals from Israel point to a sense of readiness for a subsequent move now that Iran’s air defences are seriously impaired. In all likelihood Israel will hold off until after the US elections next week when it will again have to test the waters in Washington to discuss further action. But there is no escaping the thought that despite its success, the attacks were only a first instalment in what will be the ongoing struggle to once and for all put an end to Iran’s nuclear program and remove the head of the snake that has been destabilizing the Middle East.

Now, let’s look at it from a more Iranian perspective. Scrolling through Iranian responses it is clear that there is an increasing sense of despair among Iranians everywhere as to how the country’s leadership has gambled on an outsourced war which has now come home. The sentiment is that the regime in Tehran has abandoned its people, apparently there even was a lack of air alarms going off to warn of the impending attacks. Free speech activist Hossein Ronaghi framed it as follows:

They heard explosions, not sirens and official announcements. The government has left the nation without shelter and security, as if they have made them their defensive shield! A few hours after the attack, and after denying and concealing it, they were looking for the source of the voice, and now they are talking about the "revival of national pride" and singing the "song of victory and victory"? The country is mired in crisis and war, and the people's situation is worse than ever, but the rulers are drowning in a dream of ignorance, negligence, and tyranny.

There can be no doubt that the economic, physical and above all psychological costs will have consequences for the regime, sooner or later. We can only hope and support that growing domestic discontent will foster the dynamics for regime change in Iran itself. And while the US and Europe are standing on the sidelines, Israel is the accelerant that will bring real change to Iran.

On that note it is of course a telling paradox that a regime that kills, rapes and tortures women for failing to wear a hijab is now being bombed by an air force that counts women among its air crew. Yes we have to believe that positive change in the Middle East is on its way; the entire Gaza, Lebanon and Iran war is basically a reckoning with a distant and dark past.

Some Newsletter Updates

It has been a busy time here and I will try and pick up the pace a bit in the days to come. I will switch between written content (which some of you prefer) and podcasts (which others indicated they really like). So some sort of middle ground.

And yes, we are entering a crazy eight days with the US election coming up next Tuesday. Add to that the Middle East wars and the ominous reports from Ukraine where Russian progress and Western fatigue may start to turn the tables in an unfavourable way for Zelensky and his embattled country. So lots to discuss.

Also on November 2nd, I will mark the 20th anniversary of the murder of Dutch moviemaker Theo van Gogh, and I will put out a larger piece on that as it is incredibly relevant to what is going on today.

Finally, I donated to SafeHearts which provides psychological support to survivors of the October 7th Nova festival, offering care through therapy, group support, retreats, and family assistance. Donate here, any amount is good. It is an initiative from, among others, Eve Barlow, whose own unique take on the attack on Iran you definitely want to read.

Photo: the Israeli Air Force pilots and crew getting ready for the attack on Iran’s military facilities a few days ago.